Custom Draft Guide Question

[MaineSkin]

[MaineSkin]

[Penfold]

His stats are similar so his R$ is similar.

Although the above was written about catchers, I am very confused about the results of my CDG for a standard 5x5 league for what are, IMHO, fairly similar players. Taking Runs/HR/RBI/Sb/Avg splits on a balanced valuation with no forced positions:

Player A is 80 / 28 / 87 / 3 / 259
Player B is 62 / 18 / 72 / 4 / 272

Both are 3Bs yet Player A is valued at $11 while Player B is $4!

I can see that Player A is forecasting better results in more categories, yet I don't quite understand why he is almost three times the total value.

Incidentally, for those of us who like that sort of thing, Player A's MM rating is 60, Player B's is 70.

Am I missing something fairly obvious?

[JonE]

I don't think those are as "similar" as you think. 30% more R, 56% more HR, 21% more RBI -- that's a lot of additional value.

I also wonder how many ABs the players have. Player B's higher average is worth less if you get fewer ABs from him. The value of BA is pretty high in the HQ formula and it's easy to overlook, even for longtime readers such as you and me.

[Michael@HQ]

Adding to JonE's response, realize that the dollar allocation doesn't exactly claim that Player A's projection is roughly three times as valuable as Player B's projection is. Instead, the dollar allocation is saying that the distance between Player A's projection minus the replacement level is roughly three times as great as the distance between Player B's projection minus the replacement level.

[Penfold]

Adding to JonE's response, realize that the dollar allocation doesn't exactly claim that Player A's projection is roughly three times as valuable as Player B's projection is. Instead, the dollar allocation is saying that the distance between Player A's projection minus the replacement level is roughly three times as great as the distance between Player B's projection minus the replacement level.

Ah, now that is a very good point. That makes significantly more sense to me now. Thanks for that.

[Penfold]

I don't think those are as "similar" as you think. 30% more R, 56% more HR, 21% more RBI -- that's a lot of additional value.

I also wonder how many ABs the players have. Player B's higher average is worth less if you get fewer ABs from him. The value of BA is pretty high in the HQ formula and it's easy to overlook, even for longtime readers such as you and me.

Thanks JonE. I see your point although I would add that if I hit 1 HR and you hit 2 HRs then you would be offering 100% more HRs than me; which shows that while percentage differences are informative, they only paint part of the picture.

Both are projected at over 500 ABs although one, as you might have guessed, is just at that age where decline starts to set in.

I'm comparing Kyle Seager with Evan Longoria, and the surprise was confirmed when I checked their $ values over the previous two years. 2016 CDG gave me Seager at $14, Longoria at $10, for 2017 the split was $16 and $10, and now while Seager has stayed in double-digits, Longoria has plummeted to $4.

Can AT&T Park have that much effect on his output? Maybe it will!

[JonE]

Thanks JonE. I see your point although I would add that if I hit 1 HR and you hit 2 HRs then you would be offering 100% more HRs than me; which shows that while percentage differences are informative, they only paint part of the picture.

Sure. But both 1 HR and 2 HR are still below replacement level. Once you put it in terms of replacement level, 30% more output can lead to 275% increase in price.

IOW: Michael put it much better.

[Penfold]

Sure. But both 1 HR and 2 HR are still below replacement level. Once you put it in terms of replacement level, 30% more output can lead to 275% increase in price.

Very good point, I keep forgetting to apply "replacement level" to my thought-process.

[aikman72]

Any updates on the videos you mentioned ealier in this thread?

[RAY@HQ]

Thanks for reminder. I’ll try to post them this weekend.

[ithrowplastic]

Something going on with the CDG today? I'm getting a whole bunch of nobodies valued in at $975. All the settings I normally use are plugged in correctly.

[RAY@HQ]

Just ran a league, looks fine to me. Check your config.

[ithrowplastic]

Only an issue when I use keepers.

[RAY@HQ]

Check your keeper values then, something likely amiss there. Haven't heard of any issues from anyone else.