Custom Draft Guide Question

[agellin]

When I run CDG for an AL only, 5x5, 9 team league with a standard lineup, using a $260 budget, 67% budget and Top Players valuation method with Force Positions checked, the $ values for catchers are very different from those generated when I do not check Force Positions. For example, Sanchez is $38 and Perez is $21 when Force Positions is checked vs. Sanchez at $20 and Perez at $7 when Force Positions are not checked. All other positions show only a discrepancy of a few dollars between the two reports. Is this correct and if so, why is there such a wide variation of $ values for catchers only?

[Michael@HQ]

I'm going to guess that you have 2 catchers per team, so 18 catchers at least will be rostered on auction day in a 9-team league. I'll assume a standard 23-man roster per team with 14 batters and 9 pitchers.

Look at the version when you don't check Force Positions. What's the dollar value of the 18th best catcher? It was a negative number, maybe not exactly minus $18, but something close to that.

Is that correct? Some fantasy players like those dollar values, and if it helps them build a better team, then that's great.

By checking Force Positions, the software in essence says that's not correct. Within the context of your league, the 18th best catcher is worth $1. Always. The reason is that the replacement level for catchers is much lower than it is for other batters. The software adds a constant to all catchers until the 18th best catcher is the 126th best batter (9 x 14) and then allocates dollars based on those adjusted values. The result is that catchers are more valuable than before the Force Position box is checked but that other players are worth less. The total dollar amount allocated to batters worth $1 or more should be identical.

That said, an $18 difference is enormous. You might double-check your settings to make sure everything is right. Even if that's correct, I'm going to guess that the difference will shrink to $2 - $5 by the time we hit opening day (when playing time estimates are more accurate and we know who is on the opening day rosters).

Typically, only catchers gain value when Force Positions is checked. The replacement level for other batters tends to even out due to positions such as corner infield, middle infield, and utility.

[RAY@HQ]

That's the perfect answer from Michael. I'm going to bookmark it.

[agellin]

I'm going to guess that you have 2 catchers per team, so 18 catchers at least will be rostered on auction day in a 9-team league. I'll assume a standard 23-man roster per team with 14 batters and 9 pitchers.

Look at the version when you don't check Force Positions. What's the dollar value of the 18th best catcher? It was a negative number, maybe not exactly minus $18, but something close to that.

Is that correct? Some fantasy players like those dollar values, and if it helps them build a better team, then that's great.

By checking Force Positions, the software in essence says that's not correct. Within the context of your league, the 18th best catcher is worth $1. Always. The reason is that the replacement level for catchers is much lower than it is for other batters. The software adds a constant to all catchers until the 18th best catcher is the 126th best batter (9 x 14) and then allocates dollars based on those adjusted values. The result is that catchers are more valuable than before the Force Position box is checked but that other players are worth less. The total dollar amount allocated to batters worth $1 or more should be identical.

That said, an $18 difference is enormous. You might double-check your settings to make sure everything is right. Even if that's correct, I'm going to guess that the difference will shrink to $2 - $5 by the time we hit opening day (when playing time estimates are more accurate and we know who is on the opening day rosters).

Typically, only catchers gain value when Force Positions is checked. The replacement level for other batters tends to even out due to positions such as corner infield, middle infield, and utility.

You're assumptions are correct regarding positions on the roster.

When I don't check Force Positions, the 18th catcher is minus $9, when I check Force Positions, the 18th catcher is $2 (with three $1 catchers also listed...does this mean something is not calculating correctly?).

All settings are correct (parameters the same for both lists except Force Positions, if that's what you mean by correct.

[RAY@HQ]

Yeah, having 3 guys at $1 isn't a problem. Nothing about what you're describing seems like a problem with the tool to me. It's just a reflection of how the catcher pool works in your league. Doesn't mean I would pay the "force" values, but you're getting a better understanding of the issues with the C position, which is a good thing.

[aikman72]

I like baseball HQ but I really wish some of the answers were in basic english That we would understand. I have been asking for years for a simple you tube video navigating thru the site and how to use instead of assuming that we all know. Some of the projection tools and MAC feel like unless your an excel guru, you wont know how to maximize. Not too long ago Ray posted an article in which he discussed parts of the site that were not utilized. Maybe thats the reason. Just my two cents.

[agellin]

Yeah, having 3 guys at $1 isn't a problem. Nothing about what you're describing seems like a problem with the tool to me. It's just a reflection of how the catcher pool works in your league. Doesn't mean I would pay the "force" values, but you're getting a better understanding of the issues with the C position, which is a good thing.

Thanks Ray and Michael!

[Michael@HQ]

My basic English answer would be to check the Force Positions box and trust the software to compute the dollar amounts. Not everyone likes that adjustment though, which is why it's a check box for which the user has control.

[Michael@HQ]

That's the perfect answer from Michael. I'm going to bookmark it.

Thanks, Ray.

[RAY@HQ]

We do have videos on the way to illustrate how to use the tools. Coming in january.

[SteveL]

I have a cheap Wilson Ramos in a league, a 12 team one catcher 5X5. Without checking Force Positions he’s at minus $3. With Force Positions he jumps to something like $11. Huge swing.

[Whistler]

I have a cheap Wilson Ramos in a league, a 12 team one catcher 5X5. Without checking Force Positions he’s at minus $3. With Force Positions he jumps to something like $11. Huge swing.

But, from previous discussion, I would expect the 12th catcher in your league to be worth $1 ( forced positions) . Its not so much the swing, as it is forcing the last catcher to be $1.

[PHIL@HQ]

My advice: do it both ways and then come up with your own valuation. These numbers aren't carved into stone. Individual judgment should also be factored into the decision-making.

[JonE]

But, from previous discussion, I would expect the 12th catcher in your league to be worth $1 ( forced positions) . Its not so much the swing, as it is forcing the last catcher to be $1.

The difference, or "swing," is a direct result of forcing the replacement-level catcher to be worth $1. When you don't use Force Positions, you assume that the contributions of a player are equally valuable regardless of position. When you use Force Positions, you assume that the value of each player's contributions is relative to the value of the replacement player.

I just ran CDGs for 15-team mixed, standard 23-man roster, with and without Force Positions. Without Force Positions, Welington Castillo is the worst catcher with a positive value; he is the 12th best in the pool, with a R$ value of $0. His projected stat line (43-18-56-1-.263) is pretty similar to those of Starlin Castro (56-13-60-3-.262), $1, and Jordy Mercer (59-13-62-1-.252), $-1. His stats are similar so his R$ is similar. However, with Force Positions, Castillo's R$ is calculated relative to the replacement-level catcher, Stephen Vogt (29-11-39-0-.247). Vogt's R$ is $1, so Castillo's zooms to $10. (Without Force Positions, Vogt's R$ is $-9.) Castro and Mercer, and every other hitter, gets knocked down about $1 so that the formula can allocate extra dollars to catchers.

In both cases, Castillo is worth $9 more than Vogt. Don't-Force-Positions says, "If Castillo were an outfielder, you'd only pay a buck, so don't pay more than a buck for him." Force-Positions says, "Someone is going to have to roster Vogt, and they can't pay less than $1 for him, so $1 is what they should pay. And in a world where Vogt earns $1, you should pay $10 to get Castillo, because he's that much better than Vogt."

[mexipat]

My advice: do it both ways and then come up with your own valuation. These numbers aren't carved into stone. Individual judgment should also be factored into the decision-making.

Exactly. My own preference is not to force positions. If I'm in an NFBC-style draft and considering a catcher vs an OF, I want to see numbers that illustrate their pure value. Then I'll decide how much I'm willing to give up to get a catcher in that round.