2026 MLB Projections

[RAY@HQ]

So when I click on your depth charts page for a reliever like Bryan Abreu from the Astros - you show 30% save allocation and 20% hold allocation which translates into 12 saves and 19 holds on the depth charts page. But then I when go to your 2026 projections file you have 12 saves allocated for him but zero holds. Why is that and when will your depth charts and projections be in sync?

I think we've explained this before. Projections on the site update hourly. The CSV files update daily. Abreu's projected Holds were updated today on the site. They will be reflected in the CSV tomorrow morning. The daily CSV always reflects the latest projections at the time it is generated. Then we update projections on the site only for the next 24 hours, and the CSV catches up again the next morning. So depending on when you download the CSV, it is somewhere between 0 and 24 hours behind the info on the site.

[RAY@HQ]

In addition on your depth charts page you don't have a column for projected quality starts or projected quality starts percentages. If a starter starts "x" amount of games and gets "y" amounts of quality starts - is there a way for us to monitor that on the depth charts pages as we do for holds and saves percentages as they might change as the offseason unfolds and roles change? Thanks again.

Quality Starts projections are reflected on the Playerlink projections, on the 2026 projections table, and in the CSV files. They are not, as you note, reflected on the Depth Chart pages.

QS are not allocated as "X% of Y starts" the way Holds and Saves are. We use the pitcher's history of PQS scores to derive an individual QS projection.

[Snider]

Thanks Ray - My disconnect was that I had no idea that you adjusted Abreu's projected holds from zero to 19 or from 0% to 30% just today on the site/depth charts page.

[Snider]

On your team by team depth chart pages under pitching percentages there are several relief pitchers like Greg Weissert from Boston who you have allocated 4% PT and 20% holds but then right to that in your season projections you have zero innings pitched and zero holds. I know from past conversations the lower percentage PT relievers take some time to get innings allocated to them but Weissert and a few other with as much as 4% with some hold percentage - don’t yet. Thanks

[Snider]

Even a pitcher such as Mark Leiter Jr from the Athletics has as much as 4.5% PT and a 20% allocation to saves but right next to that in the season projections - he is allocated zero innings with zero saves. I thought it might correct itself overnight but it was that way Friday and yesterday. Just wondering why some pitchers who have similar allocations have projections and others don’t. Thsnks.

[RAY@HQ]

That's on me. Projections are updated hourly, but when you see someone who has PT% allocated but no projection, they're waiting for me to add a baseline projection for him. There are ~80 pitchers and ~40 hitters in that state right now... I have a list and am working through them in decreasing order of PT%. So currently, everyone with >30% PT (hitters) or 4.5% PT (pitchers) has a projection. The 120 or so that we're talking about are all below that clip level.

I'll keep working through those, in a couple of weeks I should have that group cut in at least half, where the clip levels should be 10% (batters) and 2% (pitchers). At that point, you're really talking about inconsequential guys and I'll probably just cherry pick which ones get baselines and which don't... inevitably, as spring training rolls along and we tighten PT% projections in general, a bunch of those inconsequential guys end up getting zeroed out anyway.

I answered this question last week.

[Snider]

Thanks - that's on me. I didn't read the entire thread.

[RAY@HQ]

No worries. I'm working on some updates today/tomorrow. I'll make sure I pick up Leiter.