2026 MLB Projections

[Snider]

Hello - when should we start looking for your first set of projections for hitters and pitchers? I don’t want to miss them.

[RAY@HQ]

You won't miss them, I'm certain.

Expecting to post middle of next week.

[anb]

Looking forward to the initial projections! On a less exciting note.....the ballpark factors are listed as 2023-2025, but I am not sure if these are updated for last year's numbers yet. Can you confirm? Thanks.

[RAY@HQ]

Looking forward to the initial projections! On a less exciting note.....the ballpark factors are listed as 2023-2025, but I am not sure if these are updated for last year's numbers yet. Can you confirm? Thanks.

I updated the article, and made all of the changes to that table, but then made a mistake and they didn't save. I just need to go back and enter them again. Will be done with the projections this week.

[anb]

Hey! What's that i see? Looks like i won't be worrying about park factors for a few weeks.....

[RAY@HQ]

Stuff's going up now. Forecaster comments are loaded, Playerlink is rolled over to 2026, the projections datatable (Stats menu, 2026 projections) is live too.

The Custom Draft Guide grid view is working, but the batter/pitcher output tables are not.

Don't get too attached to the projections themselves, I need to take a good cleanup pass through those. Give me 24 hours....

[Whistler]

ETA on the CDG?

[RAY@HQ]

Hopefully tomorrow.

[RAY@HQ]

CDG is working now.

I've still got projection cleanup going on, but that will just continue over the next few days. Everything seems usable now, as long as you allow for us to continue to tighten and polish up the projections.

[RAY@HQ]

Looking forward to the initial projections! On a less exciting note.....the ballpark factors are listed as 2023-2025, but I am not sure if these are updated for last year's numbers yet. Can you confirm? Thanks.

The park factors page is fully updated now. Sorry for the delay on that.

[watershark1967]

How often are the projections updated? For example, I noticed that Clayton Beeter shows 4% usage and 20% saves for Washington, but has no projections.

[RAY@HQ]

How often are the projections updated? For example, I noticed that Clayton Beeter shows 4% usage and 20% saves for Washington, but has no projections.

That's on me. Projections are updated hourly, but when you see someone who has PT% allocated but no projection, they're waiting for me to add a baseline projection for him. There are ~80 pitchers and ~40 hitters in that state right now... I have a list and am working through them in decreasing order of PT%. So currently, everyone with >30% PT (hitters) or 4.5% PT (pitchers) has a projection. The 120 or so that we're talking about are all below that clip level.

I'll keep working through those, in a couple of weeks I should have that group cut in at least half, where the clip levels should be 10% (batters) and 2% (pitchers). At that point, you're really talking about inconsequential guys and I'll probably just cherry pick which ones get baselines and which don't... inevitably, as spring training rolls along and we tighten PT% projections in general, a bunch of those inconsequential guys end up getting zeroed out anyway.

[watershark1967]

Thanks Ray. Good to know.

[Snider]

So when I click on your depth charts page for a reliever like Bryan Abreu from the Astros - you show 30% save allocation and 20% hold allocation which translates into 12 saves and 19 holds on the depth charts page. But then I when go to your 2026 projections file you have 12 saves allocated for him but zero holds. Why is that and when will your depth charts and projections be in sync?

[Snider]

In addition on your depth charts page you don't have a column for projected quality starts or projected quality starts percentages. If a starter starts "x" amount of games and gets "y" amounts of quality starts - is there a way for us to monitor that on the depth charts pages as we do for holds and saves percentages as they might change as the offseason unfolds and roles change? Thanks again.