2021 projections

[RAY@HQ]

Ah, nice find. You've got much of this right...

- definitely the 2018-19 MLEs are a factor. The Forecaster shows his 2018 BA as 276, 2019 as 268 with MLEs included
- xBA is another big factor: three year xBA 253-260-282
- hit rate for those three years is 31-33-36. We're at 31 in the 2021 projection, that could come up a tick. I'll nudge that to 32 in next projections update, should be good for ~4-5 BA points or so.

In general, this surfaces some of the questions from Ron's intro to the Forecaster about how much weight to put on 2020. Gurriel improved his bb%, ct%, xBA, LD%.... for 224 PA. Is that sustainable? The commentary from BF also raises the question whether he's going to maintain that ct-and-LD approach that's good for BA, or go back to his 2019 upper-cutting ways.

[Whistler]

Ah, nice find. You've got much of this right...

- definitely the 2018-19 MLEs are a factor. The Forecaster shows his 2018 BA as 276, 2019 as 268 with MLEs included
- xBA is another big factor: three year xBA 253-260-282
- hit rate for those three years is 31-33-36. We're at 31 in the 2021 projection, that could come up a tick. I'll nudge that to 32 in next projections update, should be good for ~4-5 BA points or so.

In general, this surfaces some of the questions from Ron's intro to the Forecaster about how much weight to put on 2020. Gurriel improved his bb%, ct%, xBA, LD%.... for 224 PA. Is that sustainable? The commentary from BF also raises the question whether he's going to maintain that ct-and-LD approach that's good for BA, or go back to his 2019 upper-cutting ways.

Ah, H%. And small samples for his entire grid as his 2018, 2019, and 2020 are all in the same PA ballpark

With regard to xBA effect, Gurriel is also interesting in that he has good SPD scores, but his SB% and overall SB totals are not. I read the definition of xBA in the Forecaster to include SX, an index that factors in the SB elements (along with his reasonably stable FB/GB/LD and CT%, and PX ), as opposed to the DeCaria pure speed (SPD) that is listed in the Forecaster player boxes. So....does a player with good SPD but bad SX (good speed, bad SB guy) give the player a lower xBA than expected in that his SPD demonstrates he can get to first (or 2nd, or 3rd) faster from the plate (improving his BA and OBP), but his speed once on base (measured by SB and SX) penalizes his xBA when there is no BA or OBP effect once the player is already on base.

Definitely see the problem with error bars in a player like Lourdes without full season MLB track records. He "seems" like an established player that is improving, as he's been around for 3 years and is improving in some metrics over half-seasons. But he only has 206 MLB games under his belt.

[Whistler]

A good example of the qualifying games at 20 - Brantley is listed as DH only in CDG - I presume that is because he had 19 games in LF, and the CDG is still set on 20.

Which raises a question. If a player is removed from one column (say DH) and moves to another column (OF) - or if a multi-position player gets less columns -- does that significantly affect their player value, and if so how much? Or just which column there are in or not?

Thanks

[Whistler]

Also, I'm noting an oddity on my CDG projected 2021 versus YTD 2020. Perhaps this is just a function of pre-season PT assignments, but for my same team settings in 2021 and 2020, there are 92 players with $values above $15 in 2020, and only 58 players with $ values projected in 2021. I started looking when I noted in my 10 team AL only league that there were only 8 players total (H+P) that earned between the $22.50 and $30 grid lines in 2021 versus 28 in YTD 2020. A few spot checks on PT though doesn't show much to me though. Thoughts?

[Snider]

Ray - Why does someone like Alejandro Kirk from Toronto have 30% PT under the depth charts but is not listed with the hitters? His Player Link shows 0 AB's. Will he show up in an updated run since you may not have lower PT players in your data base yet? Thank you

[RAY@HQ]

Ray - Why does someone like Alejandro Kirk from Toronto have 30% PT under the depth charts but is not listed with the hitters? His Player Link shows 0 AB's. Will he show up in an updated run since you may not have lower PT players in your data base yet? Thank you

Yes, that's a case where I need to fill out the low-PT projection guys. I should be able to get through all but the very-lowest (like the 5% guys) in the next week-ish.

[RAY@HQ]

A good example of the qualifying games at 20 - Brantley is listed as DH only in CDG - I presume that is because he had 19 games in LF, and the CDG is still set on 20.

Which raises a question. If a player is removed from one column (say DH) and moves to another column (OF) - or if a multi-position player gets less columns -- does that significantly affect their player value, and if so how much? Or just which column there are in or not?

Thanks

It shouldn't affect value much at all, except if someone is C-eligible as one of their positions (or not) and you're using the 'force positions' checkbox on the CDG setup page.

[RAY@HQ]

Also, I'm noting an oddity on my CDG projected 2021 versus YTD 2020. Perhaps this is just a function of pre-season PT assignments, but for my same team settings in 2021 and 2020, there are 92 players with $values above $15 in 2020, and only 58 players with $ values projected in 2021. I started looking when I noted in my 10 team AL only league that there were only 8 players total (H+P) that earned between the $22.50 and $30 grid lines in 2021 versus 28 in YTD 2020. A few spot checks on PT though doesn't show much to me though. Thoughts?

That sounds strange, I'd like to see more of your settings. I've got a 15-team 5x5 set up in CDG that I use as a quick check for a lot of things like this. I ran 2020 YTD and got 62 batters at $15+. Same settings, 2021 projected data, I got 63.

[Whistler]

That sounds strange, I'd like to see more of your settings. I've got a 15-team 5x5 set up in CDG that I use as a quick check for a lot of things like this. I ran 2020 YTD and got 62 batters at $15+. Same settings, 2021 projected data, I got 63.

I'll PM settings.

[viper]

Updating the Free Agent status would be helpful. There are multiple players like Jackie Bradley (BOS) who are assigned to teams and are actually free agents. This is an issue that is self-corrected over time but for AL-only or NL-only leagues, they do create a small issue in initial analysis.

[RAY@HQ]

Yeah, our way of handling that is to leave them with their 2020 team unless the door is clearly closed on their return, at least this early in the offseason. There’s a point much closer to when camps open that we would move the remaining FAs to FA status.

For now, the league depth chart view does have a free agency indicator if you need help identifying those guys.

[bolton wanderers]

Might be considered a reach, but doing the Mets’ playing time, I was aware that we’re only projecting Pete for 80% Playing Time. I’m still thinking there’ll be a DH. At which point, his PT will jump to 90%. With that, his counting stats will jump. Also, Alonso was arguably better in September 2020 than he was in 2019: 10 homers, .955 OPS versus .940, 193 PX. (I’ll also admit that I’m a Met fan and my two favorite Mets at the moment are deGrom and Alonso.)

Are all NL team analysts consistent on not using potential DH time? Seems many Mets - Pete, Dom, McNeil,... - are lower on CDG than skills compared to peers.

[viper]

sounds like a plan.

[RAY@HQ]

Are all NL team analysts consistent on not using potential DH time? Seems many Mets - Pete, Dom, McNeil,... - are lower on CDG than skills compared to peers.

You can always see how the playing time is allocated in the team depth charts. We should not be projecting NL DH playing time right now.

[Whistler]

Will the Playerlink continue to have the old format and not add the new metrics in BF (Qbab, barrel%, etc). Seems like at one time there was going to be a button to hit to toggle between the two formats. Or am I missing it?