2021 projections

[Snider]

Ray - If I am not mistaken, in prior years you generally put out your initial projections after the Winter Meetings around the middle part of December. But these are not normal times. So, when do you anticipate having the first projections out this year for the 2021 season? Strange times for sure. Thank you - Ray.

[RAY@HQ]

I'm aiming for Dec 18th. Maybe a couple of days earlier if the meetings stay quiet.

[watershark1967]

Any update on the timing of the projections? Are you still shooting for Dec 18th?

[RAY@HQ]

Yes, I expect they'll be posted on Friday... might need some settling/debugging time over the weekend. But something will be visible on Friday.

[Red]

Still planning to post today? Appreciate your efforts.

[RAY@HQ]

Yup, I’ve got batters all prepped. Need another hour or so working on the pitchers offline. I’ll post mid-afternoon and then need some time to debug and polish online. Will update here.

[Red]

Thank you! Best present I'll get this Chrisitmas! Happy Holidays!

[RAY@HQ]

OK, projections are up!

After very quickly knocking around the site, everything appears in order. The projected data looks reasonable. The Custom Draft Guide works. CSV files are available.

The staff and I will do a bunch of data validation on individual players/teams over the weekend, correcting outliers as we go. So don't get too attached to the details yet... but this looks like a plausible starting point.

I'll also post a known issue list in a couple of hours after I've cleaned up the easy stuff.

[RAY@HQ]

Working issue list:

- FIXED BF21 commentaries aren't in Playerlink yet.
- FIXED the last digit in MM scores is wrong... we hacked that for the 60-game season last summer, and now need to un-hack it.
- FIXED ADP data is from 2020, working with NFBC folks to get that feed going again.
- Custom Draft Guide is working, but it's still set for 20g eligibility. We'll at least get this changed to 10, and hopefully add some level of customization a little later in the offseason.
- projections are missing for a whole chunk of lower-PT% players. Right now the most prominent (by PT%) are Yolmer Sanchez and Tyler Flowers on the hitting side, and Joe Ross/Mike Leake on the pitching side (and many more, of course... point being, not a lot of fantasy difference makers). We'll be working through those in descending order of PT% to get them added to the data set.

For now, though, this looks pretty viable. Lots of revisions to come. Enjoy!

[bolton wanderers]

Thanks, Ray and team! Early Christmas.

[Red]

One question I have is the number of 2020 games at a position to quallify there in 2021? McNeil had 12 games at 2B and 9 at 3B. The format that I play has reduced the games played required from 2020 abreviated season. This first draft only lists McNeial as a LF and DH. Not a big deal but I imagine that most leagues will reduce the games played requirement this season and allow McNeil at 2B.

[RAY@HQ]

That was the CDG bullet in my list above. It’s 20 games right now, but we are going to cut that down and/or make it configurable. Our tech team is working on it.

[RAY@HQ]

Updating above issues list... ADP is fixed, now showing 2021.

[RAY@HQ]

Another update: BF21 commentaries now loaded in Playerlink.

[Whistler]

Trying to wrap my head around the Lourdes Gurriel projections from a technical aspect. His is projected to have .306 OBP and .271 BA, the lowest numbers of his MLB career. I understand regression to the mean, but I'm curious to regress those averages to be career worst

OBP, BA
2018 309, 281
2019 327, 277
2020 348, 308
2021 306, 271


Is this a function of adding in 2018 and 2019 MLE's into the equation?