2021 projections

[RAY@HQ]

OK, completed my significant pitcher update as well. Similar to batter side... still more low-PT guys who need attention, but we're in pretty good shape at this point.

[RAY@HQ]

Posted a pretty significant update to batter projections just now. Dealt specifically with the Kirk and Gurriel issues mentioned in this thread. Also updated Josh Bell's projection (he picked up a couple of HR and about 6-7 pts of BA in the PIT->WAS move) plus the other player movement of the past ~10 days. Also added projections for about 40 more batters who didn't have any proj in the first set. That leaves another 45 or so who still need projections added, but it's a pretty bleak list... Matt Wieters, Jake Marisnick, Joe Panik, Eduardo Nunez, Jonathan Lucroy, Brock Holt.... not a lot of difference-makers in there. I'll still get those added over the next couple of updates, of course.

Similar update for pitchers coming this week, hopefully tomorrow. Will address the pitchers mentioned above in that update.

[tangs24783]

Kopech with only 87 IP seems a bit low on PT.

[RAY@HQ]

Will the Playerlink continue to have the old format and not add the new metrics in BF (Qbab, barrel%, etc). Seems like at one time there was going to be a button to hit to toggle between the two formats. Or am I missing it?

The toggle button is at the top of pitcher pages for the K/9 and bb/9. We will be working on bringing in QBaB and the other new metrics.

[Whistler]

Will the Playerlink continue to have the old format and not add the new metrics in BF (Qbab, barrel%, etc). Seems like at one time there was going to be a button to hit to toggle between the two formats. Or am I missing it?

[RAY@HQ]

Are all NL team analysts consistent on not using potential DH time? Seems many Mets - Pete, Dom, McNeil,... - are lower on CDG than skills compared to peers.

You can always see how the playing time is allocated in the team depth charts. We should not be projecting NL DH playing time right now.

[viper]

sounds like a plan.

[bolton wanderers]

Might be considered a reach, but doing the Mets’ playing time, I was aware that we’re only projecting Pete for 80% Playing Time. I’m still thinking there’ll be a DH. At which point, his PT will jump to 90%. With that, his counting stats will jump. Also, Alonso was arguably better in September 2020 than he was in 2019: 10 homers, .955 OPS versus .940, 193 PX. (I’ll also admit that I’m a Met fan and my two favorite Mets at the moment are deGrom and Alonso.)

Are all NL team analysts consistent on not using potential DH time? Seems many Mets - Pete, Dom, McNeil,... - are lower on CDG than skills compared to peers.

[RAY@HQ]

Yeah, our way of handling that is to leave them with their 2020 team unless the door is clearly closed on their return, at least this early in the offseason. There’s a point much closer to when camps open that we would move the remaining FAs to FA status.

For now, the league depth chart view does have a free agency indicator if you need help identifying those guys.

[viper]

Updating the Free Agent status would be helpful. There are multiple players like Jackie Bradley (BOS) who are assigned to teams and are actually free agents. This is an issue that is self-corrected over time but for AL-only or NL-only leagues, they do create a small issue in initial analysis.

[Whistler]

That sounds strange, I'd like to see more of your settings. I've got a 15-team 5x5 set up in CDG that I use as a quick check for a lot of things like this. I ran 2020 YTD and got 62 batters at $15+. Same settings, 2021 projected data, I got 63.

I'll PM settings.

[RAY@HQ]

Also, I'm noting an oddity on my CDG projected 2021 versus YTD 2020. Perhaps this is just a function of pre-season PT assignments, but for my same team settings in 2021 and 2020, there are 92 players with $values above $15 in 2020, and only 58 players with $ values projected in 2021. I started looking when I noted in my 10 team AL only league that there were only 8 players total (H+P) that earned between the $22.50 and $30 grid lines in 2021 versus 28 in YTD 2020. A few spot checks on PT though doesn't show much to me though. Thoughts?

That sounds strange, I'd like to see more of your settings. I've got a 15-team 5x5 set up in CDG that I use as a quick check for a lot of things like this. I ran 2020 YTD and got 62 batters at $15+. Same settings, 2021 projected data, I got 63.

[RAY@HQ]

A good example of the qualifying games at 20 - Brantley is listed as DH only in CDG - I presume that is because he had 19 games in LF, and the CDG is still set on 20.

Which raises a question. If a player is removed from one column (say DH) and moves to another column (OF) - or if a multi-position player gets less columns -- does that significantly affect their player value, and if so how much? Or just which column there are in or not?

Thanks

It shouldn't affect value much at all, except if someone is C-eligible as one of their positions (or not) and you're using the 'force positions' checkbox on the CDG setup page.

[RAY@HQ]

Ray - Why does someone like Alejandro Kirk from Toronto have 30% PT under the depth charts but is not listed with the hitters? His Player Link shows 0 AB's. Will he show up in an updated run since you may not have lower PT players in your data base yet? Thank you

Yes, that's a case where I need to fill out the low-PT projection guys. I should be able to get through all but the very-lowest (like the 5% guys) in the next week-ish.

[Snider]

Ray - Why does someone like Alejandro Kirk from Toronto have 30% PT under the depth charts but is not listed with the hitters? His Player Link shows 0 AB's. Will he show up in an updated run since you may not have lower PT players in your data base yet? Thank you