Tony Clark Market Watch & Batter Hit Rate

[joschatz]

Part of the Market Watch on Tony Clark confused me:

His batting average is terrible, yet his hit rate suggests that his batting average should improve as his hit rate returns at or above the 30% rate.

Clark's hit rate the two seasons before were 25% and 26%. I thought the most recent evidence showed that batter hit rates tended to regress to their 3-year averages.

I'm not trying to nitpick these articles as they're usually very helpful. I'm just making sure I understand how to use previous information I've read. Thanks for any help.

[PD@HQ]

You're right. Our research indicates that a player tends to regress to his rolling three-year mean. But the predictiveness of this finding was limited to pre-season projections--a swing in the fourth year presaged a correction in the fifth. Intra-season was nowhere near so clear-cut (presumably because of the sample size).

All that said, expecting Clark to "regress" to 30% is not warranted given his previous lower rates.