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Tony Clark Market Watch & Batter Hit Rate

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  • Tony Clark Market Watch & Batter Hit Rate

    Part of the Market Watch on Tony Clark confused me:

    His batting average is terrible, yet his hit rate suggests that his batting average should improve as his hit rate returns at or above the 30% rate.
    Clark's hit rate the two seasons before were 25% and 26%. I thought the most recent evidence showed that batter hit rates tended to regress to their 3-year averages.

    I'm not trying to nitpick these articles as they're usually very helpful. I'm just making sure I understand how to use previous information I've read. Thanks for any help.

  • #2
    You're right. Our research indicates that a player tends to regress to his rolling three-year mean. But the predictiveness of this finding was limited to pre-season projections--a swing in the fourth year presaged a correction in the fifth. Intra-season was nowhere near so clear-cut (presumably because of the sample size).

    All that said, expecting Clark to "regress" to 30% is not warranted given his previous lower rates.
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