How often are projections updated?

[BC96]

It seems that the projections are not being updated as frequently as they used to be?

I was reading the PT tomorrow this morning about Andy Pages and clicked through to see what HQ's thoughts were for the rest of the season. The blurb describes him as an almost everyday player for the rest of the season, but the projections only show him with 186 at-bats for the remainder of the season. Is there something I am missing, or is this just a difference in timing?

[RAY@HQ]

Projections are updated daily. Also a good reminder that you can click on any team abbreviation on the Depth Charts page to see the team PT allocations. Here's LA.

In this particular case, I guess I don't see as much of a conflict between the article and the projection as you do. Pages is projected for 40% PT for the balance of the season. The article notes that he's playing every day since he got called up... but that could change when Heyward returns, which is at least a few weeks away. It's not that we don't have an answer to that question, it's that the Dodgers probably don't either. If Pages continues to perform, they'll likely find ways to keep him on the roster and in the lineup fairly regularly. But if pitchers adjust and he cools off, he could easily get optioned when Heyward is ready (assuming nobody else gets hurt in the meantime). So 40% is kind of splitting that difference.

This raises a question that came up a few times this offseason: could we have a "projected PT for the next month" view? If we did, Pages would probably be at 90% for the next month, then maybe still under 50% in the full-season view.

Putting aside all of the above, Pages probably should get bumped from 40% to 50-60%, just based on his start. Will send a note to our LA team analyst about that.

[BC96]

Projections are updated daily. Also a good reminder that you can click on any team abbreviation on the Depth Charts page to see the team PT allocations. Here's LA.

In this particular case, I guess I don't see as much of a conflict between the article and the projection as you do. Pages is projected for 40% PT for the balance of the season. The article notes that he's playing every day since he got called up... but that could change when Heyward returns, which is at least a few weeks away. It's not that we don't have an answer to that question, it's that the Dodgers probably don't either. If Pages continues to perform, they'll likely find ways to keep him on the roster and in the lineup fairly regularly. But if pitchers adjust and he cools off, he could easily get optioned when Heyward is ready (assuming nobody else gets hurt in the meantime). So 40% is kind of splitting that difference.

This raises a question that came up a few times this offseason: could we have a "projected PT for the next month" view? If we did, Pages would probably be at 90% for the next month, then maybe still under 50% in the full-season view.

Putting aside all of the above, Pages probably should get bumped from 40% to 50-60%, just based on his start. Will send a note to our LA team analyst about that.

Thanks Ray.

[badvlad]

Projections are updated daily. Also a good reminder that you can click on any team abbreviation on the Depth Charts page to see the team PT allocations. Here's LA.

In this particular case, I guess I don't see as much of a conflict between the article and the projection as you do. Pages is projected for 40% PT for the balance of the season. The article notes that he's playing every day since he got called up... but that could change when Heyward returns, which is at least a few weeks away. It's not that we don't have an answer to that question, it's that the Dodgers probably don't either. If Pages continues to perform, they'll likely find ways to keep him on the roster and in the lineup fairly regularly. But if pitchers adjust and he cools off, he could easily get optioned when Heyward is ready (assuming nobody else gets hurt in the meantime). So 40% is kind of splitting that difference.

This raises a question that came up a few times this offseason: could we have a "projected PT for the next month" view? If we did, Pages would probably be at 90% for the next month, then maybe still under 50% in the full-season view.

Putting aside all of the above, Pages probably should get bumped from 40% to 50-60%, just based on his start. Will send a note to our LA team analyst about that.

Hi Ray,
Pages is now up to 60%. Can you clarify though that equates to 60% of the games rest of season or does that factor in that he played non the first few weeks and by year end he would have played in 60% of the 162 games?

[RAY@HQ]

All percentages are today through end of season.

[badvlad]

Thanks Ray

[elephant]

I was going to start my own thread for this question, but realize that this thread got me part of the way there. Ray, when you write that projections are updated "every day," does that mean that every day HQ staff look at potential PT tweaks that ought to be done, and then the algorithm takes it from there for ROS projections according to a new # for AB/PA/IP/GS (etc.)...or does "every day" mean that, in addition to such manual PT tweaks, the algorithm also takes into account extant performance and adjusts its *expectations* for a player from there?

In other words, PT tweaks aside, do the ROS projections for a player just equal start-of-season projections - what they've done thus far (so that if a player was projected start-of-season for 15 HR and has already hit 10, he's projected for 5 ROS?) ? Or do ROS projections take into account the possibility that performance to date might indicate that the start-of-season projection itself might need adjusting (so that, in the case of the hypothetical player projected start of season for 15HR, those 10 HRs hit thus far might up his ROS projection to 10 HR, for 20 HR/season total)?

I hope that all made sense...

[RAY@HQ]

Yes, it's a great question. And the latter paragraph is the answer. In each daily generation of the stats/projections, the system is (at a high level) saying "we are X days into the season, this player's projection should be weighted Y% based on YTD performance, and Z% based on our baseline projection", where the baseline projection is USUALLY the pre-season projection, unless I've manually gone in and updated that baseline.