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Thread: Balance of Year Projections

  1. #1
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    Default Balance of Year Projections

    I really liked that feature last season
    Is the anyway to do the math for us on the projections page

    You have the full season projection, then the YTD projection. In previous seasons there was the Balance of Year projection next. Can we bring this feature back

  2. #2
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    Balance of year data is available in the playerlink database....but that won't help if you want a bulk file that can be searched and manipulated. Just thought I'd mention.....
    "The journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step." Translation: Try to learn something new every day.
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  3. #3
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    The "PROJ + YTD" data is supposed to show balance-of-season projections. In fact, the heading for the right half of the spreadsheet says "Balance of Season Projections." Maybe it's an error on our part? I'll ask Tech.

  4. #4
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    Thanks Tom

    You da Man

  5. #5
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    The projection pages have YTD stats ( Actual ) and then the Balance of Season Projections. There is a seperate balance of season projection page as well. The balance of season projections currently are updated weekly, but I am working on making these daily.

  6. #6
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    Default balance of year projections...

    Matt,

    I have a simple question/request...

    I have mentioned this several times on here but haven't seen any response. On the CSV projections files, is there a way that you can get the projected 5 x 5 dollar values to come thru as something more than a whole number? In other words, can this number be made to show up as a dollars AND cents figure like it did before this new format? Apparently, I am alone on wanting this, but it doesn't seem like it would be that hard to do. I rely heavily on the projected dollar values and the more detail I can get, the better. Again, it was this way before the changes, so I would hope it wouldn't take too much to make this happen.

    Otherwise, I have no major beef with the changes. It just seems like this little part of it (for me anyway) made the projections worse and less helpful than they were before, and I would think any upgrades should make them better. Thanks for your help and consideration.

    PS - I am happy to hear that you are working on updating the projections daily.

    Thanks,

    Will

  7. #7
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    I'd cast a vote in favor of the dollars & cents numbers, too, if it's not a big hassle, though it really matters most to me during the preseason. I usually submit those projected $$ values to a few manipulations (including inflation, a reliability adjustment, and +/- for our roster needs) before our auction, so it's nice to start out with a fractional number, even though I always format it to round to the nearest whole number when I'm done.

    On the other hand, given all of the discussion about the inherent inaccuracy of some of these forecasts, maybe those cents just create a misleading illusion of precision with some non-significant digits.
    2021 Teams: Pandemic Petrels - 15-team mixed redraft (HQ Forum Masters); Patioboater's Puddle Ducks - 15-team, mixed, slow-draft-and-hold (HQ Slow Winter Draft); Regal Beagles - AL keeper (I-96 League), on hold for 2020.

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  8. #8
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    Let me research this, the valuator is already setup to easily do decimals. I just need to make sure where all the dollar values are stored can handle them.

  9. #9
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    I agree with Patioboater's comments, that showing dollars and cents is more important during the pre-season.
    I have a lot of apps open in my brain right now." -- Lin-Manuel Miranda

  10. #10
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    Default Thanks for the response...

    Thanks for the quick response Matt. I appreciate your efforts in making my experience with BBHQ more enjoyable and helpful.

    BTW, It IS Important to me during the regular season, not just the preseason. I will be looking for the upgrade. Thanks again, Matt.

  11. #11
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    Much as Chone Figgins owners would love him to steal 55 bases from this time forth, and Carl Crawford to get 649 more ABs, those were pre-season projections. The "Balance of Season Projections" are in fact showing the complete-year projections from before Opening Day. I assume this is one of the glitches that will be cleaned up soon.

  12. #12
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    I'm in the camp that believes cents in projections would be meaningless. It's trying to get too precise with non-significant digits, so you get the illusion of meaning where there is no meaning.

    So how do I differentiate between players with identical 5x5 values? By sorting them next on BPV. Presto, meaningful numbers.

  13. #13
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    I'm with you that they're meaningless per se, but I find that they do help a bit behind the scenes when I'm making adjustments to those $$ forecasts in the preseason. It's the principal of carrying through your non-significant digits in your calculations as you add them up, then reverting to the significant digit level when it's time to present your results.

    After all that, though, I lop 'em off entirely when it's time to go to the draft and I generate instead a range of maximum and minimum bids for guys. (i.e. I'm not carrying around something like "Carlos Guillen = $12.86", but instead something along the lines of "Carlos Guillen's range for our inflated league = $13 - $19".)

    In any case, as I said before, it only really matters to me during the preseason, but I do find it handy.
    Last edited by Patioboater; 04-18-2006 at 10:46 AM.
    2021 Teams: Pandemic Petrels - 15-team mixed redraft (HQ Forum Masters); Patioboater's Puddle Ducks - 15-team, mixed, slow-draft-and-hold (HQ Slow Winter Draft); Regal Beagles - AL keeper (I-96 League), on hold for 2020.

    3x Champion of the Forum Masters League, 2x Champion of the HQ Slow Draft League - Sic transit gloria mundi

  14. #14
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    Default Okay, that's fine...but why would it hurt you?

    Why would it hurt you to have them on there? You can just ignore them. I really didn't think I would get that many negative responses to my request. If something can be done (with little effort from the staff) that will help someone with their projections and NOT hurt others, what is the problem? I don't see one, and I don't see why people feel the need to speak out against my request.

  15. #15
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    Default Free the Cents!

    Quote Originally Posted by willellis
    Why would it hurt you to have them on there? You can just ignore them. I really didn't think I would get that many negative responses to my request. If something can be done (with little effort from the staff) that will help someone with their projections and NOT hurt others, what is the problem? I don't see one, and I don't see why people feel the need to speak out against my request.
    I meant my response to be one in favor of your request, but to note that it wasn't an urgent matter for me personally. In general, I agree that those who don't value the cents should just ignore them. I think we just got ourselves a little sidetracked afterwards into a discussion as to their actual value for some of us in our auctions and whether we feel they constitute meaningful significant digits. But I didn't mean it at all to be opposition to restoring the cents, nor do I think anybody really opposes their restoration.

    In any case, it sounds from Matt's response as if it might not be too tricky a restoration, so I'd be surprised if we don't see them back soon.
    2021 Teams: Pandemic Petrels - 15-team mixed redraft (HQ Forum Masters); Patioboater's Puddle Ducks - 15-team, mixed, slow-draft-and-hold (HQ Slow Winter Draft); Regal Beagles - AL keeper (I-96 League), on hold for 2020.

    3x Champion of the Forum Masters League, 2x Champion of the HQ Slow Draft League - Sic transit gloria mundi

  16. #16
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    I'm in favor of the pennies, too. Not that I'm likely to make a big decision based on less than $1, and I realize the limitations of SGP to start with, but the pennies are quite helpful when doing historical research, graphs, comparisons, etc. to have the hundreds of values "smoothed" (closer to linear) rather than "artificially flat" (step-linear) within dollar ranges.
    "As often is the case, GE is right." -- Davitt@HQ

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by willellis
    Why would it hurt you to have them on there? You can just ignore them.
    But you don't. Your brain sees those numbers and reacts to them in inappropriate ways. If you see a player is worth $15-19, you can easily view them as being worth 15 or 19 or even 21 or 13, and that is all basically correct. But if you see $15.39, you hesitate to even go to $16 since you see the .39 and think you should round down. Yet he's still a $13-$21 play! Those extra digits fool you into thinking that projections can be more precise than is possible.

    Now I'm not complaining about your desire to get those meaningless decimals put back in. Go for it. I hope it works out. But I will never view them as having any meaning because I don't think even $15 is meaningful. I'm reaching the point where I only want $5 ranges of values for players as being anything that contains even close to real life accuracy.

  18. #18
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    Lefty Specialist made a good point above that I don't want to see get lost in the pennys.

    Are the projections going to get updated based on current factors? Subtracting to date actual from full year projection is not really a great tool. The projection might have been based on him batting 7th in the order. If he is now batting 5th, shouldn't his projections be altered?
    11 tm 5X5 Roto Snake Draft 10th pos

    C - J. Willingham (19.10), 1B - D. Lee (2.02), 2B - C. Figgins (4.02), 3B - T. Glaus (6.02), SS - J. Lugo (10.02), OF - J. Bay (1.10) - J. Pierre (3.10) - H. Matsui (5.10), UT - R. Sexson (7.10)
    BN - J. Gibbons (21.10) - R, Aurilia (W)

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  19. #19
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    All projections are balance of season numbers, which are then added to YTD data to create the full season lines. Balance numbers always take into account relevant changes to a player's skill and playing time.

  20. #20
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    I think there's an error, though. The "Balance of Season" projections appear to be the numbers for the full year. For example, in today's file, Pujols has 10 HR YTD, but his balance-of-season projection is 46. That's the full-year number.

  21. #21
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    And, using the Pujols example, the player projections for Pujols show YTD HR total of 10, balance of 46, total projection of 56.

  22. #22
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    Coming off my Friday donut sugar high, and particulary grouchy...

    I see the same error. I would be less upset if I haven't been waiting all week for HQ to get the 'bugs out' of their updates, so I could update all the material I have based on HQ's historical sheet format.

    Last year the valuator, this year the projections files. I understand that everything has bugs and kinks, but couldn't there have been more off-season testing?

  23. #23
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    It's tough to test daily projections updates in the off-season. But it all should be fixed now.

  24. #24
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    I'll feel better if/when Nick (in his other thread) feels better.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by RON@HQ
    It's tough to test daily projections updates in the off-season.
    I would have imagined you have years of data. You might have, for instance, tested on the 2005 data.

    Not that any of these problems have bothered me, the excuse justseemed a bit lame.

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