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Tim Beckham BPV glitch?

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  • #1

    Tim Beckham BPV glitch?

    I was looking at Tim Beckham's player page...

    It shows him as having a BPV of -6 to date, and yet a $17 R$ value. These two pieces of information seem inconsistent.
    * 10-team AL-only, auction ($260 budget), 2 yr contracts wi/toppers, max 13 freezes, $100 FAAB with weekly auctions, 4x4 with hybrid categories
    * 13H/8P/2U on active roster, with U = hitter or pitcher
    * 8 man reserve draft, with liberal movement between active and reserve rosters, unlimited DL for IL players
    * Hitting: OBP, HR, RP, BADV = SB+2B+2*3B
    * Pitching: ERA, SV+HLD, QIP = 2*IP-baserunners, WQG = W+QO+CG (    QO = 5/6/8 IP with 2/3/4 ER or fewer)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Baseball HQ
    https://www.baseballhq.com/glossary-b


    Looks right to me.

    5x5 depend on HR, RBI, run, BA and SB plus those same characteristcs for the rest of the AL player pool.

    Batter BPV from the glossary (see link above) is ((Walk rate - 5) x 2) + ((Contact rate - 75) x 4) + ((Power Index - 80) x 0.8) + ((Speed Index - 80) x 0.3). So there are four input, none of which figure directly into R$. Plug in walk rate = 5, contact rate = 64, power index = 102 and speed index = 146 (I think that's correct) and I get within rounding error of the same BPV that is reported on the website. Essentially, the formula "thinks" that Beckham's contact rate is so bad that it outweighs down the fact that he's got average power and good speed.
    "If you torture data long enough, they will confess." -- Ronald Coase

    Comment

    • #3
      Thanks. I'm sorry for not having cross-checked with the formula myself.
      * 10-team AL-only, auction ($260 budget), 2 yr contracts wi/toppers, max 13 freezes, $100 FAAB with weekly auctions, 4x4 with hybrid categories
      * 13H/8P/2U on active roster, with U = hitter or pitcher
      * 8 man reserve draft, with liberal movement between active and reserve rosters, unlimited DL for IL players
      * Hitting: OBP, HR, RP, BADV = SB+2B+2*3B
      * Pitching: ERA, SV+HLD, QIP = 2*IP-baserunners, WQG = W+QO+CG (      QO = 5/6/8 IP with 2/3/4 ER or fewer)

      Comment

      • #4
        No problem at all.

        You can see how the formula is becoming dated. Before 2007, there were just four seasons (3 by Rob Deer) in which a player as bad of a contact rate as Tim Beckham has and played enough to qualify for the batting title. No wonder that the BPV formula evaluates Beckham's contact rate to be so harmful. Now, it's becoming more common in this era of more strikeouts and more homers.
        "If you torture data long enough, they will confess." -- Ronald Coase

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