Projections - Questions

[Snider]

Ray - I am questioning a few of your projections.
(1) Brad Hand had 21 holds this year and for this year you are projecting 6 saves with zero holds. You are allocating holds to various middle relievers but none to Hand
(2) you are even allocating 5% holds to Luis Perdomo who is one of their top starters ( I use the word top in this case) loosely but no holds to Hand and 4 to Perdomo. It would appear that Hand should be allocated at one of the highest in the pen - 20-25% maybe.
(3) You have Scott Feldman performing as a swing man for the Reds with no quality starts or holds while throwing 131 innings.
(4) As mentioned above I am questioning Perdomo's 4 holds as he is a starter.
(5) you have no qulaity starts or holds for Matt Andriese; Cody anderson; Albert Suarez; Andrew Triggs; matt Cain; or trevor cahill; Travis Wood
(6) You have quality starts and holds for Alex wood but view him as a starter.
(7) If Huston street is not the full time closer and Bedrosian is - shouldn't he get some holds along the way?
(8) Zach McAllister won't even get 1 hold in the Indians bullpen?? He's not Andrew Miller or Bryan shaw but he should get something.
(9) Lastly - I am questioning your overall quality start conservatism. If you analyze your number of quality starts versus innings pitched for many top starters yours are way below the last 2 averages. Mad Bum is projected to get 19 but ana verage of the last year he should get 23 with the number of innings he is projected to pitch. Cueto 16-20; Darvish 17-21; Greinke 14-20; Hamels 16-22 mples.I could give many more. Thank you

[RAY@HQ]

Thanks for the notes, comments inline:

Ray - I am questioning a few of your projections.

Thanks for the notes here...

(1) Brad Hand had 21 holds this year and for this year you are projecting 6 saves with zero holds. You are allocating holds to various middle relievers but none to Hand

Fixed.

(2) you are even allocating 5% holds to Luis Perdomo who is one of their top starters ( I use the word top in this case) loosely but no holds to Hand and 4 to Perdomo. It would appear that Hand should be allocated at one of the highest in the pen - 20-25% maybe.

Fixed.

(3) You have Scott Feldman performing as a swing man for the Reds with no quality starts or holds while throwing 131 innings.

This was discussed in another thread, I think. Projection is for Feldman to begin year in rotation and eventually transition to long relief. So we don't necessarily expect holds. I've assigned a few QS for next update.

(4) As mentioned above I am questioning Perdomo's 4 holds as he is a starter.

Removed.

(5) you have no qulaity starts or holds for Matt Andriese; Cody anderson; Albert Suarez; Andrew Triggs; matt Cain; or trevor cahill; Travis Wood

The way we project QS is dependent on using BF/G to identify who is an SP and who isn't. As a result, swingmen end up in no-man's land sometimes. In general, I make sure that any pitcher with 100+ projected IP gets a QS projection. A couple of these guys were right on that line. If they're below that line right now, I'll try to catch them as they bubble up over that line.

(6) You have quality starts and holds for Alex wood but view him as a starter.

See above, he could well be used as a swingman this year.

(7) If Huston street is not the full time closer and Bedrosian is - shouldn't he get some holds along the way?

Gave him a few.

(8) Zach McAllister won't even get 1 hold in the Indians bullpen?? He's not Andrew Miller or Bryan shaw but he should get something.

Fixed.

(9) Lastly - I am questioning your overall quality start conservatism. If you analyze your number of quality starts versus innings pitched for many top starters yours are way below the last 2 averages. Mad Bum is projected to get 19 but ana verage of the last year he should get 23 with the number of innings he is projected to pitch. Cueto 16-20; Darvish 17-21; Greinke 14-20; Hamels 16-22 mples.I could give many more. Thank you

This is mostly due to us being cautious in projecting innings/starts. We're at 32 GS/210 IP right now, last year he was 34/227. That 2-3 starts has a direct effect on QS projections. We might be running a few low across the board, but I think the rankings/ordering of the projections still work pretty well. And as always, we'll be tightening up the projections as March goes on.