Mark Lowe

[Snider]

Ray - Mark Lowe has been one of the best relief pitchers in baseball this year through the 1st four months. But looking at your playerLink projection you have rated as one of the worst going forward. His xERA, FIP, xFIP, and other statistics say his good season is justified. Generally you don't project such a wide divergence going forward. Why do you think the wheels are going to fall off for Lowe? What do you know that we should be aware of? Thank you.

[RAY@HQ]

Yes, he's been very good this year, and that performance is largely supported by the skills over 2/3 of the season. Problem is, that 2/3 of the season is just 37 innings. In an SP, that's a sample size that we'd view very skeptically. Should we treat sample sizes differently for relievers? That's a tough question that I don't really have an answer to. Right now, the projection engine is favoring the 200-something innings of his career that weren't nearly as good as the 37 from this year. I don't think that's necessarily wrong.... but it's not all that easy a question, either.

[Astros34]

Mark's a great guy but he's never been consistent. Control problems and gopheritis have been his bug-a-boo in the past, along with untimely injuries. Great to see a friend doing well in the majors, but he's never been counted on in a pennant race (had a 1.2 LI in 2011 with Texas) and has struggled so far since going to Toronto.

[Whistler]

. Right now, the projection engine is favoring the 200-something innings of his career that weren't nearly as good as the 37 from this year. I don't think that's necessarily wrong.... but it's not all that easy a question, either.

For hitters and pitchers, do the projections (in general, not in this case) from the projection engine, weight recent performance at all (meaning, this seasons performance)?

Then, are the manual corrections just PT corrections, as opposed to projection engine corrections?

Thanks

[Michael@HQ]

Whistler, yes, the in-season projections incorporate YTD in-season performance, but in Mark Lowe's case it is only 37 IP. Here's a quote from this page:

Once the season starts, the process changes. The performance baselines begin to integrate each player's historical trends and his stats-to-date. These two elements are weighted by varying levels during the course of the season. For instance, early in the season, history might account for 90% of the baseline and current stats only 10%. As each player accumulates AB or IP, that weight shifts away from history. The rate at which this shift occurs varies by player, based on a variety of factors such as a player's age, injury history and his base performance indicators.

The very large majority of in-season projection changes are due to playing time (and save and hold allocations) changes and the automated incorporation of in-season performance. However, on infrequent occasions we do make changes in the skills portion of the projection.

[Whistler]

Whistler, yes, the in-season projections incorporate YTD in-season performance, but in Mark Lowe's case it is only 37 IP. Here's a quote from this page:


The very large majority of in-season projection changes are due to playing time (and save and hold allocations) changes and the automated incorporation of in-season performance. However, on infrequent occasions we do make changes in the skills portion of the projection.

Thanks Michael, for the refresher, reminder, and reference!