Baseball HQ Starting Pitcher Report

[RAY@HQ]

Why is it still all jacked-up?

What do you mean?

[SgtVane]

PQS vs Opp last year shows zeros for everyone

[RAY@HQ]

PQS vs Opp last year shows zeros for everyone

Yeah, I don't think that will work until we roll the thing over to read from current year data. Right now it's treating 2013 as "this year" and 2012 as "last year", but I think we archived the 2012 data so it can't find it. We're probably two weeks from rolling it over to using 2014 data.

[Little_Mac]

I always have trouble fighting the urge to stream pitchers. In the past, even early in the season last year, this feature was quite useful.
This year, it's terrible, and I will ignore it henceforth.

[RAY@HQ]

I always have trouble fighting the urge to stream pitchers. In the past, even early in the season last year, this feature was quite useful.
This year, it's terrible, and I will ignore it henceforth.

Nothing's changed. All you are seeing is sample size variance. The track record is there, so "ignoring it henceforth" is really tossing the baby with the bath water, so to speak.

[mwallach]

I am trying to figure out why Cueto rating is so low. He has pitched great the past 2 years, especially against Pittsburgh. Any explanation?

[RAY@HQ]

I am trying to figure out why Cueto rating is so low. He has pitched great the past 2 years, especially against Pittsburgh. Any explanation?

We're looking only at 2013 data, so.... only Cueto's road starts from 2013 would be taken into consideration for this rating. His six road starts last year were ratings of 0-4-5-0-0-4, for an average rating of 13/5 = 2.16

The Pirates, as shown in the report, have a 3.08 rating, so the final score comes from (2.16 - (5 - 3.08)) = (2.16 - 1.92) = 0.24

That's all that is involved. Pitcher's starts home or road, opposing offense home/road and right/left splits as appropriate. Nothing specific about Cueto's history vs. the Pirates.

[Little_Mac]

Nothing's changed. All you are seeing is sample size variance. The track record is there, so "ignoring it henceforth" is really tossing the baby with the bath water, so to speak.

You are correct.
Early-season freak-outs are so hard to avoid.
What I meant to say is, I should ignore it until we have a large-enough sample size, say one more month.

[mwallach]

I am a little confused about the OPP team rating, the higher the worse the team is expected to do hitting wise. I assume since the pitchers are using this years stats, that opp team rating is using this years stats as well. If you look at the mets and the marlins today, the mets have a lower rating than the marlins, which means everything being equal they are expected to do better offensively. This is supposedly based on the average pqs of opposing pitchers home/away, and l/r. I find it hard to believe that the marlins who are scoring more runs than about everyone but the Rocks at home, but the pitchers are doing so well against them. Is there anywhere to see the individual game pqs ratings?

Also, I had been using the pitcher ratings to great success this year (for wagering and daily fantasy), when they were based on last year ratings, now that they have switched to this years ratings, the sample sizes are too small and for the most part the ratings are worthless. I would like to suggest that until June, you use an aggregate of this years and last years stats.

One last question. Is there anywhere on the site that you can see how teams do versus l/r home/away? On the starting pitcher report it appears the stats are only home and away and don't include l/r.

[RAY@HQ]

Your summary of the oppPQS number is entirely accurate, and yes, that's also based on 2014 data.

If you want to see the full PQS logs, you can go to Stats&Tools/Leading Indicators... download the full PQS report, and filter on the teams/splits you want to look at.

I agree it would be nice to be able to blend 2013/14 data at this point in the year, but we don't have that capability right now. We'll look into it though.

We don't have team L/R splits available, either... just home/road, as you've seen.

[mwallach]

Your summary of the oppPQS number is entirely accurate, and yes, that's also based on 2014 data.

If you want to see the full PQS logs, you can go to Stats&Tools/Leading Indicators... download the full PQS report, and filter on the teams/splits you want to look at.

I agree it would be nice to be able to blend 2013/14 data at this point in the year, but we don't have that capability right now. We'll look into it though.

We don't have team L/R splits available, either... just home/road, as you've seen.

Thank you, That would be great if you can use the previous year and ytd data combined, for the pitchers. I downloaded the file and tried to sort, I see the opp team, but I don't see the handedness of the pitchers. Also, how are the pqs ratings determined? I see a game pitched by Beckett where he pitched 6 2/3 allowed 8hits 4er, 1bb and 8 k's and that is a 4 and I see a game where Cashner pitched 6 innings allowed 5 hits, 2er, 3bb and 6k's and that was a 5 and he lost the game, how could that pitching performance get the top rating? These are both at marlins in April.

[RAY@HQ]

PQS definition is in the glossary. I forgot that PQS file doesn't have handed ness. You would have to grab a projection file and match on name to get handed ness

[mwallach]

I looked up pqs in glossary and this is all it says PQS: Pure Quality Starts. Do you have a link to a more robust definition?

[RAY@HQ]

I believe you need to just scroll down on that page for the extended definition.

[bolton wanderers]

11 May PITT SP

Has Geoff Blum on 11 May for PIT vice Morton ... coming back as a knuckle-baller?! LOL