Starting Pitcher Report

[staz]

Repost from the Wainwright thread, probably more appropriate here:

Interesting that the SP Report has Wainwright as a -0.13 tonight vs the Padres, yet he's a "matchup to seek" in the NL midweek matchup article. I have him benched in favor of Nicasio (+1.73) tonight vs. Miami... or am I reading the SP Report wrong?

http://www.baseballhq.com/members/to...kly/weeklyprob
http://www.baseballhq.com/content/ma...ek-may-21-24-0

[RAY@HQ]

Writers don't necessarily offer their takes based soley on the report. You're reading it correctly.

[staz]

Glad to hear. I certainly wouldn't expect BBHQ writers to let a formula automatically trump their intuitive perception. But...

If our best efforts can only reach 70% predictive accuracy, we can either accept that... or work to whittle that down. I'm always thinking and looking for formulas and strategies that aim to move the needle toward upward, which is why I was attracted to this site in the first place.

For example, we all know everybody has an off night. Verlander will have a PQS-DIS at some point this season. For the sake of argument, let's say being able to accurately predict which night would be one way of eating into the errant 30%.

So my benching of Wainwright (pitching in SD against a weak lineup) seemed crazy at first, but the SP Report made me think, "this is exactly the tiny little clue that could signal an outlier", especially considering Wainwright's recent performances. But currently, 2 hits and 6 Ks through 6 innings, suggests I should have listened to intuition and reason, not the numbers.

I guess what I'm after is 1) Is the pursuit of reducing the errant 30% is even worth the effort? (hope so, because it would be fun and potentially rewarding), and 2) should the endeavor be to create an end-product that is nothing more than a data-driven formula? Clearly, the writer's ability to reason has trumped the formula approach tonight, but can this reasoning (and scores of other "reasons") somehow/someday fit into a spreadsheet? Or should there always be room at the table for qualitative intuition?

Forgive my rambling.

[RAY@HQ]

I think you are over thinking. If you can't start a guy at home against the Padres, you can't start hm anywhere. This is a case where common sense trumps the report.

[SgtVane]

What is the situation with the Miami/Florida Marlins? The stats listed from Avg to RC/G don't show up for MIA, is this possibly a programming error?

[RAY@HQ]

Probably. Will check it out.

[sgrape]

When will the SPR be updated for San Francisco? It's been reported in numerous places that Zito will start Tues and Vogelsong Weds but SPR remains TBD for both days.

[RAY@HQ]

We don't update this directly, we receive a feed from OnRoto. They update twice a day, though, so I'd imagine you'd see it either this afternoon or tomorrow.

[sgrape]

We don't update this directly, we receive a feed from OnRoto. They update twice a day, though, so I'd imagine you'd see it either this afternoon or tomorrow.

Thanks Ray!