Meche xera vs. projected era for 2009

[jwillh9181]

Not sure if this question has been answered before but Meche has a xera above 4.00 but a projected era for the season below 4(3.7)?

Is this right and if so what factors make is so?

I always thought that most pitchers will most likely come back to their xera once luck, strand rates, and everything else comes back to the mean?

john

[RAY@HQ]

We don't always match the projected ERA and xERA.... but that's a different discussion. What you're seeing right now is that we haven't yet adjusted the xERA formula here on the site to match the newest version from this year's Forecaster.

In Meche's case, both the book and the web site have his projected ERA at 3.72. Book has projected xERA at 3.99, site at 4.30. So once we get the site's formula updated, his xERA will bounce back to 3.99.

[jwillh9181]

Thanks Ray.

Will the Xera and projected era ever be different??

I would assume once the season starts this will happen but not before??

john

[Michael@HQ]

It certainly has happened before that projected ERA and projected xERA in the offseason are different.

[RAY@HQ]

Yes, they will differ. I'm on the road and don't have my notes in front of me, but I think influences like park factors can be one of several possible reasons for those differences.

[RON@HQ]

Projected xERA focuses on skills only. Projected ERA also includes the noise. Consider the two values as a range of expectation.