Custom Drfat Guide - Question

[TMac]

When I set up the Custom Draft Guide for my league, I get some curious projection values ... based upon 2 sets of parameters.

FIRST SET UP:
15 Team, Mixed League, 5x5, $260, 66% hitting, Balanced, Minimum Salary @ $1
RESULT: Top player values (ARod) start @ $41. Same as found on the Projections part of the site.

NOW: I make what I feel is a very small change ...
I add 5 bench players & change nothing else.
RESULT: Top player values drop by about 25% ~ e.g. ARod's value is now $31.

I assume that these last 5 (reserve) players would go out @ $1, and for purposes of our analysis ... they have little or no value. They are replacement level players. Not good enough to crack any team's 23 man roster.

I even tried adding $5 of salary (budget) giving each team $265, assuming that the last $5 would be spent on the 5 reserves.
This would leave $260 to be spent on each team's top 23 "active" roster guys.
When I do this, ARod's value goes up by just $1 ... to $32.

I am curious about this. Why do top players values drop so much, when a handful of Replacement Level players are drafted?
If your league has no reserves and just replaces guys from the free agent pool (vs a reserve roster) ... is it really any different?

I need the services of a master statistician. Is there a Rainman in the house ?

[RAY@HQ]

TMac, I've moved this thread to the Tech Support forum, so that RobR might see and comment.

In the meantime, would you mind trying the same two exercises in "Top Player" mode? I'm curious to see how that effects the output.

[TMac]

TMac, I've moved this thread to the Tech Support forum, so that RobR might see and comment.

In the meantime, would you mind trying the same two exercises in "Top Player" mode? I'm curious to see how that effects the output.

Ray ... Switching to Top Player mode moves the top players up. ARod goes to $48.

Adding $5 of budget (to $265) and adding 5 Reserves, min salary of $1, drops the top players by $10.
e.g. ARod & Miggy drop to $38.

[RAY@HQ]

From the FAQ, just in case you didn't see it:

Number of Bench Players: Enter any number. For those leagues that require that bench players be purchased from your draft budget, this forces those players to have positive dollar values.

Do you pay auction dollars for these bench players? If not, just don't use the option.

[TMac]

From the FAQ, just in case you didn't see it:

Do you pay auction dollars for these bench players? If not, just don't use the option.

Ray ... In some leagues YES and in some leagues NO.
I just can't figure out why this would have such a big impact on the projected $ Values of the top players.

Whether you pay $1 each for them, at the end of your draft, or leave them in the free agent pool, until they're needed ... what's the difference ?

To reiterate ... these reserves are just that ... reserves / replacement level, "inactive" fodder.
Why does their inclusion impact the top players values by 25% ?

If none of the (15 teams x 23 active roster slots) 345 active players get DL'd or under perform, these these "reserves" will never see an active roster.
So, how can they have value ? ... and why do they impact the value of the 345 "best" players ?

[RAY@HQ]

Short answer.... if you include those extra/bench guys in the player pool to be purchased, you aren't just adding more replacement-level players. Instead, you're redefining replacement level. In your example, you've pushed replacement level down by 75 players, not an insignificant number. So, the $1 players are now significantly worse, the guys who were $1 players in your initial example are now significantly better than that (take a look, they're probably around $5?), and that redistribution of resources continues all the way up the player pool, until there are just fewer dollars left to allocate to the top players.

That's my understanding of how those extra players would affect valuations at the top end. But there's a reason I moved this thread, and hopefully RobR will drop by and further clarify at some point.

[RobR]

Ray's got it right. Bench players are split as extra P and UT players. They have none of the special valuation characteristics that TMac attributes to them. You're adding 75 players above replacement level, but they aren't all worth the same and won't be worth $1 each. Before you added these roster slots there were only 4 hitters worth $1 and guys 30 or so from the bottom are worth $4 or $5. If you have 5 replacement level players per team that don't affect draft valuations, then enter 0 for bench players.

If they were as TMac describes, 75 guys taken after the normal draft guaranteed to be $1, what's the need to include them for valuation? Take the first 75 guys in the replacement value or worse sections and deem them to be $1 if that suits your needs, but all players will not be created equal over a range of 75 players. If you're counting pennies, then I suggest you enter 0 for bench players and reduce each team's budget by $5 to $255.

[TMac]

Valuation Question

Ray & Rob ... Thanks for the explanations.

Actually, I'm in a 15 team, 5x5, mixed league that does a snake draft.
What I'm trying to do is get a handle on Player values / contribution.

If I use the default settings of $1 replacements, $260 budget, no reserves and a 66% offense setting, I can go 2 ways.

I can Force Positions or Not Force Positions.

When I force positions, it shows the top 30 Catchers as having positive value.
However, the 31st Catcher has a value of minus $9.
Forcing the positions is more reflective of how we draft. We have to draft (2x15) 30 catchers.

So, I can see where forcing positions has merit.
Forcing Positions values V Martinez @ $22. Don't force positions and he's a $17 player.
So, at the draft, he's a $22 guy. As a replacement player (with no positional constraints) he's a $17 guy. Is that an accurate statement ?

What Valuation Format best reflects a players productivity/value ... if position isn't a factor ?
If I were simply interested in a final (23rd) player, to insert into a Utility slot; or if I were looking for the most productive/valuable (first) replacement player ... would I use the same parameters ... but NOT Force Positions ?

Where would you use these two (Force Positions & Do not Force) valuation formats ?
Which Valuation Method works best for a snake draft ?