HQ top 100/250/etc/

[Old Tom]

The healthy shot on the back of the head that I fully deserved.

Thank-you, Dr. Phil.

Yeah, but I was serious!

[JVR]

I think this is a rather large exaggeration of the caveats I gave above.

You see how the sheen of that 200,000th post is already coming off, LOL!!

Meaningless, I tells yas.

[JVR]

Yeah, but I was serious!

I'm sure you were. I expect a full psychological profile by the time we hit 300,000.

In the interim, let's take time off for a commercial break ...

"Caveat. The gums that chew you up after the fact."

[Old Tom]

If the Forecaster snake draft rankings are not compliant with reality...

I'm thinking of making that my new signature: "Old Tom: not compliant with reality."

[JVR]

I'm thinking of making that my new signature: "Old Tom: not compliant with reality."

Meh, it would cause an unnecessary rumpus.

[vaclipper]

The post by JVR shows as #200,000! Put your cursor over the "#9" in the upper right on the blue bar, and look down in the bottom grey bar on your minitor, and the post id is 200000.

nevermind....I misunderstood the original post...and thought davit was saying JVR had made 200,000 posts

[JVR]

nevermind....I misunderstood the original post...and thought davit was saying JVR had made 200,000 posts

I believe that would be my alias, "Circle".

[Markus_ls]

The Straight Draft list in the Forecaster is tailored to the pos. scarcity approach. It's based in the Forecaster's R$ values, with a "bump" given to guys who play scarce positions.

Just like the SD guide, that list gives no consideration to "market" values, so just because you see a Furcal ranked in the top 10 doesn't necessarily mean you should draft him there.

The suggestion of using the Custom Valuator to generate lists is also a good one.

You can also take the midway point between the SD Guide and the Auction ranking the page before. The auction rankings do not appear to be adjusting for position. So you can have "with" and "without" position for comparison.

[JVR]

I think this is a rather large exaggeration of the caveats I gave above.

Uhhh, my comments were not based on your caveats, but rather upon Ron's own preference for auction values as expressed at page 46 of the Forecaster.

I place a lot of confidence in Ron's judgment calls and research, so I certainly meant no discredit by the comment I made, and I dare hope it wasn't taken as anything more than trying to be practical.

Almost everyone on this site is sensitive to position scarcity. But, when rankings are being presented for the purpose of a snake draft, it seems to me that market considerations have to enter the equation. In other words, leave the shaded areas in (to drive home additional points), but scatter the players more in terms of where they are likely to fall, so that you don't feel compelled to pick Rollins 4th overall as he's likely to be available in the middle of the following round.

Just speculating here, but perhaps the snake draft rankings turned out as they are for a reason. It would have possibly been perceived as causing considerable dissonance if some of the players ranking higher in the auction draft format would have found themselves in a lower rung of a snake draft format, given that the data in the Forecaster player write-ups leads to an R$, and not to a snake draft rank.

Hence, a case may be made for assigning snake draft ranking values to players right next to their R$ -- and these may or may not correlate just because snake drafting is a totally different animal.

As I indicated, the Forecaster snake draft rankings are not compliant with reality, not the rest of the Forecaster. I saw the snake draft rankings as a type of "cheat sheet" the fantasy industry normally reserves for the back pages of its mags. The whole point of cheat-style rankings is to give you a credible and reliable picture of what your snake draft might look like more often than not -- at least that's the popular perception, IMHO.

My regrets if my comment, as referenced by Ray, above, was taken to mean anything other than I expressed right here.

[RAY@HQ]

Thanks for the clarification, JVR. For the record, I don't think anyone disagrees with you. The question is, how do you account for market forces? How do you measure "public perception" of a player's value, so you can quantify how HQ's perception may create a buying opportunity?

It's hard to begin with, but there are some things here on the site (and in these forums) that we can do. It's darn near impossible in the Forecaster, since it's written (for all intents and purposes) in October, and is basically first-to-market without anyone else's perceptions available for comparison.

[Hawk]

My way of preparing for my straight draft the past two years is to use the custom draft guide in grid format to create a general ranking of the players. I'll move them around a bit to fit my preferences.

About mid-February I run about a 10-12 round mock draft for my league on my own. I'll use composite rankings on sites like ESPN and mock draft central plus some expert leagues to help me guess about where players will fall and combine that with my knowledge of each owner's prejudices (who likes speed, who gambles on young talent early, who takes pitching too early) to each draft. By loading the results into RotoLab I can develop targets at each position that give me the kind of balance I want on my team.

At the draft I take a list of rankings by position with a notation next to each player of about where I rank him overall. I also includes notes on the player's skills so if I can look for categories I think I'm short in (my league doesn't allow laptops at the draft, so RotoLab won't help me).

There are always some surprises, but I've done enough mocks by draft day that I am able to adjust fairly easily. And the surprises work two ways - there is usually a position at which I miss my targets, but at another position I'll get a better player than I expect.

[badvlad]

Wow, I was just looking for a cheat sheet. All you guys are awesome. JVR, congrats on 200k. Do let us know how your snake draft turns out.

I actually started this thread off another where someone was asking about their roster and a reply was that they had 2 of the top rated SPs by HQ, so it was that list I was hoping would be the top 250 or so. Unfortunately, I cant find that post to quote from it.

I think I will sort by projections to create a list.

[JVR]

badvlad -- thanks.

I too was looking for a cheat sheet but like you, I'll resort to other sources.

The Forecaster provides enough other information to adequately complement anything else we dig up using projections, the custom valuator and expert mock draft samples -- and that's exactly the route I'll be taking.

[PD@HQ]

I'm thinking of making that my new signature: "Old Tom: not compliant with reality."

Already taken.