Projections and RAR

[mreyeguy]

I understand that usually when the first projections are posted in December, I know that most HQ subscribers can't wait to check them out. It's the most exciting time of the year other than draft day.

However, I always notice there are a few glitches here and there with some of the numbers. I would think someone would be proof-reading the data to ensure accuracy.

I am in a Scoresheet league and I take great interest in the BPV, RAR and RC/G #'s. Upon reviewing my current players projections, I noticed Juan Rivera had a -7.8 projected RAR. Negative? How is that possible? If I find any more of those will let you know.

I do have one other suggestion/request. In Scoresheet, players can qualify at various positions. Some of that flexibility can be huge when determining a players potential value. An average 1Bman in the AL could turn out to be a top 3Bman if he qualifies for that position.

Let's take Kevin Youkilis for example. Last year he qualified at 3B only at the start of the season. This year, because of playing time last year, he qualifies at 1B, 3B AND outfield. Is there a reason why he is ONLY listed as 1B in the projections? When calculated, his RAR will definitely be LOWER and show less that his true value if playing let's say center field or third base. Defensively he only has a range of 2.07 in the OF, but his value would increase dramatically. It would be nice to have the maximum value for the RAR calculated at his strongest position, rather than at his weakest (1B).

1B RAR = 9.2
CF RAR = 15.3

AL 1B avg RC/G = 5.42
AL CF avg RC/G = 4.66

Kevin Youkilis projects to be 67% more valuable in CF than at 1B. Wouldn't it make sense to list the players RAR at their "most valuable" position that they qualify for?

[Michael@HQ]

Youkilis last year had 127 games played at 1B, 16 at 3B and 18 at OF. Under a 20-game minimum rule, he is only eligible at 1B heading into the 2007 season.

[mreyeguy]

Apparently in Scoresheet, there isn't a 20 game minimum. He is listed on my roster as qualifying at 1B,3B, and OF on the Scoresheet web site.

I just checked the rules on the web site. Minimum 10 games at a position qualifies for that position for the current year. In order to qualify for the NEXT year at that position you need a minimum of 20 games played at that position.

That being said, Kevin would not qualify for the outfield next year, but would still be have a higher RAR at 3B than 1B. For players who qualify at multiple positions, the RAR I think should still be calculated at the "most valuable" position for projections.

[Michael@HQ]

Youkilis only played 16 games at 3B last year, which is why he's not listed as a 3B.

[mreyeguy]

Wow....OK then....I guess my point is moot. LOL. I should have targeted another player for my example, but you get what I'm saying. Every year, I end up making adjustments to player RAR based on the position that they will be "most valuable" from heir qualifying positions. HQ should take that into account when listing the RAR for the times where it will make a difference, even if it's a small one at that.

[graymatter]

I have another point concerning RAR. The RC by position and xERA for each league can be substantially different. In the case of the overall ranking, players with similar projections (RC and xERA) are not ranked equivalently. For simulation play in combined leagues, this would not reflect true value. Would it be better to have an avergage RC or xERA for overall ranking purposes? Within league, the relative difference would still be consistent.

[Traderboy]

[quote=mreyeguy;197233]Apparently in Scoresheet, there isn't a 20 game minimum. He is listed on my roster as qualifying at 1B,3B, and OF on the Scoresheet web site.

There IS a 20 game minimum in Scoresheet. The new player lists will not be out until mid-January, and your current roster reflects the positions for 2006.

[mreyeguy]

[QUOTE=mreyeguy;197233]I just checked the rules on the web site. Minimum 10 games at a position qualifies for that position for the current year. In order to qualify for the NEXT year at that position you need a minimum of 20 games played at that position.

If you were to have read my post beyond your quoted paragraph you would have found this.