Suggestion for added feature on Weekly Planner

[jonesat]

Ok, I hand wickered some numbers just to see ifI was headed in the right direction,..the statistical sample is not remotely large enough or cross checked enough to make me want to drop ordanance on the target,...but if I were to give you a cocktail napkin guess for the week I would say that the Webb/Estrada game vs. the Mets on the 10th should feature some CS's as well as the Escobar/molina game vs Seattle on the 10th (although very likely just 0 SB's since Sea is middle of pack running team).

On the other side I'd look to the Reds and Cubs series to generate some SB's as well as the Pads and Marlins series, but particularly the Maddux/ Barret combo,...and the Young/Piazza combo (that would be SB's against!),..if I had to go further I'd say Hanley Ramirez gets a steal that night...in the Reds series I'll go with Freel for 2 and Lopez with 1 .

There ....gosh I feel like I just did somebody's horoscope.

Now for the disclaimer,...this was a first-stab-back-of-the-envelope-guestimate to satisfy my own curiosity. This is the part where you cast out a theory, set down an experiment to prove or disprove, and then set about proving and or dissproving...a small baby step on the way to something I feel can be done,..it may just take me a little time to feel it out.

So there goes nothing...now watch those games get rained out...the worst thing that can happen in an experiment is to not have anything happen, good or bad.

Ok so my next call is to my bookie

[jonesat]

Sorry, I ended up a little busy sat- sun,...the numbers I saw when on the MLB sight were Piazza 36 SB vs 4 CS,....V-mart 39 SB vs. 6 CS,...and Le Croy 20 SB vs. 1CS.....am I reading them wrong? Those are pretty ugly when compared to guys like Ramon Hernandez 15 SB vs. 19 CS and Kendall at 16/13

[Markus_ls]

Your right Ray,...I've never been to MLB.com, but the data provided is beautifull,....unfortunately it is only this seasons data...but looks like if you want to run the bases...wait till V-Mart, Piazza or Lecroy are catching,...and Wakefield far leads the pack in 17 steals allowed,...however looks like 12 came with Josh Bard catching (I didn't back check them all, but that should be close). I have started to play with it to see if the small sample can still be usefull,...perhaps I will set up a predictive matrix this weekend and give it a run over next week to see how it works,...anything that manages to work now only gets better with a bigger sample size.

They DO have data for previous seasons. You just have to use the "Historical Stats" menu instead. You can also get there by clicking on a player then clicking on the previous year when his historical stats come up.

What are you looking at for V-Mart, Piazza, and Lecroy....which stat?

[jonesat]

Your right Ray,...I've never been to MLB.com, but the data provided is beautifull,....unfortunately it is only this seasons data...but looks like if you want to run the bases...wait till V-Mart, Piazza or Lecroy are catching,...and Wakefield far leads the pack in 17 steals allowed,...however looks like 12 came with Josh Bard catching (I didn't back check them all, but that should be close). I have started to play with it to see if the small sample can still be usefull,...perhaps I will set up a predictive matrix this weekend and give it a run over next week to see how it works,...anything that manages to work now only gets better with a bigger sample size.

[RAY@HQ]

I just noticed last night (while researching today's Speculator column) that MLB.com has SB-against data for pitchers. I think that's the first time I've seen that.

[jonesat]

But I never said I could spell,...thats what editors are for...

[jonesat]

Actually, since I have time this year...(and I am an Intellignece/Operations Reasearch Analyst by trade and training, after all) ....I might be able to nug some of this out,...but I don't have access to to good Raw data that I assume BBHQ does. I've already done a sort of informal survey of Game logs and boxscores and think I see some probable nascent trends....but a hand survey of box scores will take me till ...um...next spring?....If someone has a sortable database that includes SB, CS, pitcher name catcher name, runner name, team name...for at least two years of data (five preferably),...bet we could put something workable together pretty soon.

[ajc730]

And so you are waiting for............? Hmm? Inquiring minds want to know!

It's a lot of data to gather I'd have to go back five years and find and input the data manually. One of these days, I'm going to get around to this.

[Markus_ls]

A quick and dirty way to do this would be to regress sb per single + walk (or per baserunner) on the sb% for the team's primary catcher, k, bb, hr etc.. The residual value could be attributed to the pitcher's windup.

And so you are waiting for............? Hmm? Inquiring minds want to know!

[ajc730]

I'm all for capturing catcher data... a prior version of the Planner had that, as I recall. But how do you suggest we measure "pitchers with terrible deliveries"?

A quick and dirty way to do this would be to regress sb per single + walk (or per baserunner) on the sb% for the team's primary catcher, k, bb, hr etc.. The residual value could be attributed to the pitcher's windup.

Of course, the catcher's sb% would be determined, in part, by the pitcher. So for each pitcher observation, yuo'd want to subtract out his sb/cs stats from his catcher's stats.

[jonesat]

Came to my mind because I read a blurb somewhere about Jered Weaver and how because of his slow delivery to the plate, he hides the ball well from the batter,...but runners have all day to take a base,...and since he does not seem to have a secondary delivery,...runners will only be held based on management's green light. It seems to me there are more of these guys out there who's delivery is slow, or complex,...link them up with a weak armed catcher,...and match them with a team that likes to run and you could pick up a couple of extra bases a week making a big difference at the end of the year.
It seems Markus has a good lead on where to start. Anecdotal evidence is great, but stats are better,.....BTW,...I think the potential here is good....I think SB's are much more predictable than we think, it's just that we haven't looked at all the factors. If a guy is fast, thats great,...but thats not what ultimately decides whether he goes or not,...it's also the catcher, the pitcher and the manager (game situation excluded because I have no idea how you could factor that, but 4 of 5 is not bad) all contributing to the players decision to go.

[Markus_ls]

I'm all for capturing catcher data... a prior version of the Planner had that, as I recall. But how do you suggest we measure "pitchers with terrible deliveries"?

Wouldn't that just be the pitchers with the most successful steals against? Offhand I know Wakefield and Millwood are two of the pitchers that get stolen off of a lot.

[RAY@HQ]

Additionally,..there are some pitchers with terrible deliveries (long motions etc.) who are easier to steal on,...I would add this into my look at steal potentials

I'm all for capturing catcher data... a prior version of the Planner had that, as I recall. But how do you suggest we measure "pitchers with terrible deliveries"?

[jonesat]

Additionally,..there are some pitchers with terrible deliveries (long motions etc.) who are easier to steal on,...I would add this into my look at steal potentials

[Kevin]

It would probably be pretty easy to add some sort of notation as to good/neutral/bad conditions for steals on the weekly planner,...steals often seem to be more influenced by the opposing catcher, than anything else, so, if there is a series where there is a weak armed catcher as the primary starter (Piazza as an example?) then there are definately more steals to be had that week. A rifle armed catcher can usually reduce the number of steals. I think this would be generally helpfull. A straight roto contest needs to capitolize on steals planning,...I play in several points head to head leagues, where steals are worth a point,...but even worse caught stealing is -1,...while looking at my situational lineups it could be helpfull to squeeze out a few more points with a couple of steals, vice only looking at the batting/pitching situation.

I think this is a fantastic idea