Why have all my SP's gotten worse in the last week?

[BrooklynMonster]

The following is a list of all my SP's with their April 7th rotolab imported BHQ projected ERA's listed first and their current player link database projected total ERA listed 2nd.

Sheets 3.05 3.11
Pettitte 3.37 3.68
Lieber 3.88 4.45 (!)
Chen 3.83 3.95
Verlander 3.03 3.29

What's up?

[Yardsmen GM]

First take a couple of deep breaths into a paper bag....now remember you're only looking at 2 weeks worth of stats. Give yourself a little more time.

Lieber's trouble includes a trip to Coors, Sheets has had one start and his control was not what it will be soon. Pettitte's first start was less than ideal, but he turned it around with the next two. (I'm a NL guy so I can't help talk you down with the other two )

I own Lieber and Pettitte and am looking at the same stats you are with a little more optimism. I just hope it isn't misguided...

[BrewerFan]

Assuming you are looking at balance-of-year projections (rather than total projections), one bad week should not siginificantly influence the numbers.

That leaves 2 options:
1) BBHQ really got nervous over one bad week, and decided that these pitchers are suddenly much worse than they thought a week ago (especially Lieber), or
2) The projections are still messed up from the conversion to the new layout.

At this point, I'd bet its #2.

[maisany]

More Importantly...

Why is this thread in a forum marked to "Discuss HQ's new web site or any problems that are discovered"? It's really for your benefit to post in the appropriate forums, so more people are likely to see it and respond. Perhaps a kind moderator might move this to "Roster Management"?

[helloneumn]

maisany-

That's what I thought at first as well. However, I think BrooklynMonster's question is related to why the projections for all of his pitchers have changed (in some cases, drastically) in just one week. You may still be right that it belongs in a different forum, but my guess is that he's thinking it has something to do with the change to the player projection files, rather than the skills of the individual pitchers

[BrooklynMonster]

right on

helloneumn is correct. I want to know why the projected year end totals have all been downgraded in the last week. How often and why does this take place? Or is it an error in the current or pre-draft projections?

[helloneumn]

I can't answer fully, but I know that projection changes take place quite often. Weekly right now but I think they're trying to get them changed daily. That said, my experience with HQ has been that they usually don't change projections so drastically based on a small sample size so I can't really answer the part about WHY they were changed

[maisany]

I Take It Back

Thanks hn for pointing out my lack of reading skills. It's RIF for me, I guess.

Well, let me see if I can't at least make amends by throwing in my two cents.

I can't speculate on the NL guys, but looking at the two AL pitchers, Chen and Verlander, here's what I find.

The overall, full year projection for Verlander was a 3.03 ERA. That's derived from 39ER/116IP. If you take his first start (0/7) and subtract it from that total, you get a 3.22 ERA (39/109), which isn't that far out of line with what you found on PL, and given his second start (which probably was not available when the projections files were being compiled on the typical Thursday night/Friday morning schedule), the slightly higher projection makes some sense.

The same for Chen. His original projection was 3.88, based on 75ER/174IP. Subtracting start 1 (2/5) results in a slightly higher pERA of 3.89 (73/169). I don't know why Chen's pERA would be downgraded so much but it could be based on a more concrete picture of his potential opposition. Just a guess on my part on that last one, but without a better understanding of how HQ arrives at their projections overall, that's about all any of us can do. It could also have something to do with their projected xERAs. Verlander's is 2.51 while Chen's is 4.38.

It could also be that they've changed some of their algorithms along with the overhaul of the in-season projections formats. Obviously, when you make some sort of change in the underlying algorithms, it will affect different players differently. Again, total conjecture on my part. Perhaps someone who knows more about how the projections are calculated can give us a little more direction.

[maisany]

From Ron's Message Regarding New Projections

This is a direct quote from Ron's message regarding the new projections this week:

Since we are dealing with several new enhancements and timing is critical, the first posting of these files did not go off as smoothly as any of us would have liked. There are still a few bugs in the data and some formatting issues, however, we are aware of these and are working to correct them as soon as possible. I would expect that things will be running smoothly no later than next Friday.

Sounds like a perfectly acceptable explanation to me. Wait until the projections come out this week or even next week. They'll get it worked out soon enough.