Ted Lilly's value in custom draft guide grid

[scootron]

I am confused somewhat regarding Ted Lilly's value. The player projections list his value in a 5x5 at $9. When I input AL-only 5x5 (standard categories) into the custom draft guide, I get $5 for Lilly. When I click the "Top Players" option, Lilly goes to $1.

I realize that 'top player' puruit will impact values of the remaining players, but a swing from $9 on the projections page to $1 on the grid makes it very hard to evaluate someone like Lilly for keeper purposes. For example, if I can freeze him at $7 and expect inflation around 25% he would be a keeper if I think he is worth $9, borderline at $5 and a 'throw-back' at a buck.

Anyone care to comment/help/explain?

I'm sure there are numerous other players with this same issue, but Lilly is the one that caught my attention.

[RAY@HQ]

How many teams in your league? What other options are you selecting in the tool?

[scootron]

12 teams, AL-only, $260, standard 14 hitters and nine pitchers, top players, force position...plus the standard 5x5 cats, r,hr,rbi,sb,avg,w,sv,era,whip,k. I think that is all. I made it where it was whole dollars only.

[RAY@HQ]

The 'top players' option applies a lot of extra dollars to the top end players (obviously). Those dollars have to come from somewhere, and it's from the bottom of the pool. I've seen this behavior before. You really need to decide which option best mirrors your league's behavior and your own strategy for this year.

[scootron]

Thanks for the advice. I'm trying to develop an objective methodology for determining league tendencies. It seems difficult in a keeper league, but my thought is that if I review past years' auctions and find that top talents (Arod, Manny, Santana, etc.) go for amounts which exceed even their inflated values, then I can conclude my league is a 'top players' league. Does that seem about right?

[RAY@HQ]

Yeah, that seems about right. For an auction I did a couple of weeks ago in a league in which I had no history, I literally printed the "top players" and "balanced" values, brought them both with me, and sat back and watched the first 5-10 players auctioned off to see which set of values was more in line with the room. (It ended up being a "top players" league.)