CDG Question and QS not working

[The Brave Bull]

I'm wondering if I should be trusting the CDG right now, and I haven't noticed this issue in the past. I'm seeing examples that have me thinking that it's not getting updated regularly. Example: Jared Jones has been lights out with top notch skills over the course of like 8 starts yet it's projecting him ROS to have trash numbers and earn -$7. How can that be? And I've seen other anomalies that have me thinking it's going off of pre-season projections.

Also, on the player profiles it's not accounting for QS, one of my categories. It shows every SP having zero QS.

Lastly, on my phone if I look up a player it takes me to his page but there's no 'content' button like on the computer where I can read the latest posts where he's mentioned.

[RAY@HQ]

1. I actually started to look into this over the weekend. Changes are happening in the projections, but I think they may be happening a bit more slowly than they would have in the past/slower than they should be. In general I WANT the projections to be fairly slow to react to in-season changes, but we might be on the verge of "too slow". Note that this is not specifically a CDG issue, it's in the root of the projections. More to come on this.
2. Have reported this to tech, should be fixed soon.
3. All PLink tabs are there on the mobile view, but they aren't tabs... it's a dropdown selector, it appears right below the end of the Forecaster comment. You can pick any of the tabs there, including 'Content'.

[RAY@HQ]

1. I actually started to look into this over the weekend. Changes are happening in the projections, but I think they may be happening a bit more slowly than they would have in the past/slower than they should be. In general I WANT the projections to be fairly slow to react to in-season changes, but we might be on the verge of "too slow". Note that this is not specifically a CDG issue, it's in the root of the projections. More to come on this.

Quoting myself.... we did indeed find and fix a problem relating to how quickly the rest-of-year projections (the "Projected Balance" line in Playerlink) was incorporating the year-to-date stats into the projection. For many/most players, this wasn't really noticeable at all... but over the past couple of weeks, if you looked at outlier performances like, say, Elly DLC's SB total, or Imanaga/Ranger Suarez's hot starts in ERA/WHIP, the projections were being very slow to acknowledge the change in performance.... basically treating them more as if this was late-April rather than late-May.

We've made that correction today and have re-generated the projections just now. Like I said, in many cases you won't notice a difference. But for those of you who download the projections every day, you'll see a noticeable shuffling of projected values etc. Think of it as us just hitting fast-forward on a couple of weeks worth of the process that normally happens very slowly day-over-day throughout the season.

[Snider]

I have struggled since the change to the site with the CDG to the point where I don't use it anymore because I haven't believed the output given the inputs that i have put into the systems for many years - sadly. By the way I used to use the CDG all the time and never questioned the output because the players passed the "smell test". So I went back to it today just to check it out and inputted our factors as I have done many times. Lo and behold the CDG on my device is showing Ivan Herrera as the 2nd most valuable catcher going forward. He ranks higher than every catcher other than William Contreras. I just don't believe that Herrera should rank above Rutschman, or W. Smith, or others.

His raw stats according to his player link page for the projected balance are:
AB = 284 at 70% playing time
Runs = 43
HR = 7
RBI = 40
SB = 7
AVG = 0.247
OPS = 0.723

Does that sound like the Forum catcher going forward?

Below him is Will Smith
AB - 337 at 80% PT
Runs = 53
HR = 14
RBI = 60
SB = 1
AVG = .261
OPS = 0.776

Adley Rutschman
AB = 382 at 90% PT
Runs = 55
HR = 15
RBI = 54
SB = 1
AVG = .267
OPS 0.775

In our format stolen bases are just one out of 5 categories with OPS counted instead of BA. Yes Herrera is projected to get 7 SB where the other two only have 1. But the other catchers are much higher than Herrera in every other category. I don't think anyone would think that Ivan Herrera should be ranked as the second best catcher going forward just $1 less than William Contreras and higher than both Will Smith and Adley Rutschman. That just is not credible. Any thoughts on this would be appreciated.

[bowi8son]

IT will miraculously have it fixed tomorrow, at least that's what we have been assured

[RAY@HQ]

I have struggled since the change to the site with the CDG to the point where I don't use it anymore because I haven't believed the output given the inputs that i have put into the systems for many years - sadly. By the way I used to use the CDG all the time and never questioned the output because the players passed the "smell test". So I went back to it today just to check it out and inputted our factors as I have done many times. Lo and behold the CDG on my device is showing Ivan Herrera as the 2nd most valuable catcher going forward. He ranks higher than every catcher other than William Contreras. I just don't believe that Herrera should rank above Rutschman, or W. Smith, or others.

His raw stats according to his player link page for the projected balance are:
AB = 284 at 70% playing time
Runs = 43
HR = 7
RBI = 40
SB = 7
AVG = 0.247
OPS = 0.723

Does that sound like the Forum catcher going forward?

Below him is Will Smith
AB - 337 at 80% PT
Runs = 53
HR = 14
RBI = 60
SB = 1
AVG = .261
OPS = 0.776

Adley Rutschman
AB = 382 at 90% PT
Runs = 55
HR = 15
RBI = 54
SB = 1
AVG = .267
OPS 0.775

In our format stolen bases are just one out of 5 categories with OPS counted instead of BA. Yes Herrera is projected to get 7 SB where the other two only have 1. But the other catchers are much higher than Herrera in every other category. I don't think anyone would think that Ivan Herrera should be ranked as the second best catcher going forward just $1 less than William Contreras and higher than both Will Smith and Adley Rutschman. That just is not credible. Any thoughts on this would be appreciated.

As always, I need to see your inputs to the CDG. You can send me your full URL to the CDG, I think you've done that before. The base values on the site don't show what you are describing here, so I would like to review your config.

[Snider]

https://www.baseballhq.com/tools/custom-draft-guide

Here is the link. Thanks for your help. I don't know what inputs I have wrong. Just to clarify the categories are:

Hitters - Runs/HR/RBI/SB/OPS
Pitchers are more complicated - ERA/WHIP/SO/(W+QS)/(SV+HLD)

[RAY@HQ]

That's not the full link that I need. Try grabbing the link from your CDG results page. Should look something like this:

https://www.baseballhq.com/tools/custom-draft-guide/roto/12421

[Snider]

https://www.baseballhq.com/tools/custom-draft-guide/roto/12506

How is this?? Thanks.

[RAY@HQ]

That's it, thanks. Will investigate this weekend.

[Snider]

I appreciate your help. The CDG was such a valuable tool for me and by not using it I miss it. I’m sure with the new change I’m doing something wrong but I can’t figure it out.

[RAY@HQ]

Just based on my first look, I don't think it's anything you're doing. I think it's on our end with that OPS category. If you flip OPS to BA in your config and run it again, you get Herrera ranked where you would expect.

[Snider]

Thanks Ray. It would be awesome to be able to use the CDG with confidence again.

Here’s another somewhat related question. Andrew Nardi according to your CDG before the season started was ranked as the number 1 reliever according to the CDG. I had him ranked as a good reliever but not close to number 1. He got off to a very bad start and his YTD stats look bad. He has pitched better as of late. With Puk moving to the pen and Nardi moving down the food chain in the bullpen - his projected stats still call for him to be outstanding projected until year end as one of the main set relievers in the pen. At what point does BHQ recognize that maybe the preseason stats have to be altered to some extent during the season and the high level projected of him needs to come down to some extent? Or does BHQ really believe that his season will miraculously turn around and that his projection today is really what you believe after careful consideration of every projection that you make? Thanks

Edit - I didn't read the posts above my post addressing the timing of projection changes. But the question still applies to Nardi being in the top 5 relievers projected from now until the end of the season with our inputs. I just don't think that is likely. Thanks

[RAY@HQ]

Relievers are a very difficult problem in this exact scenario, because of the small sample sizes involved in their season. In a vacuum, you don't want the projection system to completely change its mind on a pitcher based on 19 innings. But for a reliever, that's a third of the season. On the other hand, Nardi's 3.73 xERA is a lot better than his actual ERA, so he hasn't pitched nearly as bad as his results, either. So how should the projections react to those factors? I don't think there's an easy answer to that. You can say we're under-reacting to his work so far... and I wouldn't disagree. But I'm not sure that's something that's easily remedied, either. I think it's just the perils of evaluating relief pitchers in small sample sizes.

Sorry, I know that's not a satisfying answer.

[Snider]

I understand there is probably no good answers on the Nardi situation. But thanks for working on the OPS situation. The numbers I see on my CDG are not believable and it's not just Ivan Herrera. Will you please let me know when you have the issue resolved? I would love to use this tool again.