CDG Values are not reflecting inflation

[billyrohr]

I posted in another thread ("CDG keeper toggle..." back on 3/2 about the CDG values not working. Ray responded super quick, said he ran a test and inflation seemed to be at least moving "directionally" correctly. I tried to run two tests Sunday, but CDG kept crashing, so I ran another tonight. Something sure seems wrong.

Apple 3.3 GHz 6-Core Intel Core i5, Safari
12 team AL-Only 5x5, 2C, $260, keeper, Value BALANCED, Force Positions OFF


First, saved and ran league w/ ZERO KEEPERS - compared values of Top 19 bats 3/2/24 AL-Only projections. They sync up, all is right w/ the universe.
My test subject, Aaron Judge, is worth $33

Here are the Top 6 bats:
1 - Julio $38
2 - B Witt $37
3 - K.Tucker $35
4 - Yordan Alvarez $34
5 - Judge $33
6 - Jose Ramirez $33

Then, I added the following keepers at the following salaries w/ their projected AL only 5x5 value:
Yainer Diaz $6 (Proj $16)
Ed Julien $6 (Proj $14)
Riley Greene $8 (Proj $21)
Evan Carter $3 ($17)
Bobby Witt $8 ($37)
Yordan Alvarez $23 ($34)
Juilo $13 ($38)
Kyle Tucker $16 ($35)
Royce Lewis $8 (28)
Aaron Judge $32 ($33) - Test Subject

So, Judge underpriced by $1, and 9 others w/ $91 salaries projected at $240, or $149 retained value. Because, math, the top bats values should all increase.

So I saved and re-ran it. Calamity ensues:

Top 6 bats are now
1 - Jose Ramirez $32
2 - Judge $32 - KEEPER
3 - Juan Soto $30
4 - Bichette $28
5 - E. Ruiz $28
6 - Devers $27
17 - Alvarez $23 - KEEPER

All 9 Keepers are reflected now (Table View) at their FREEZE PRICE, not the INFLATION-ADJUSTED Auction Value. I can't believe that's the intent of this product.
Furthermore, NONE of the other bats (Ramirez, Soto, Bichette, Ruiz, Devers) reflect any increase in Value. They just move higher up the list cuz Julio, Witt, Tucker & Alvarez moved out of the Top Spots with the CDG showing their FREEZE PRICE.

Now, I'll admit right now I might be a dumbass and doing something wrong, but this interface is super user-friendly, so I'm hoping this is not user error.
Any thoughts would be much appreciated.

PS - I intentionally used Balanced Valuation as shifting to "Top Players" because I wanted to test in a neutral environment.

[billyrohr]

So, since the web page doesn't show any values the reflect inflation, I downloaded the CSV to see if they might show there. In that doc, the last 2 columns after BPX APPEAR to be the CDG calculated values for 4x4 and 5x5 based on Keeper Salaries. There's no way these are correct, since ALL the Top Bats LOSE VALUE:
1 - Julio $34 (-4)
2 - Yordan $33 (-1)
3 - Judge $32 (-1)
4 - Tucker $32 (-3)
5 - Witt $32 (-5)
6 - J. Ramirez $28 (-7)

[RAY@HQ]

Billy, I'd like to see the rest of your settings... if you can email your inputs to support@baseballhq.com (a screenshot of your settings page would be great).

But, to be clear, the way your KEEPERS are being reflected is correct. The intent is to display them at their freeze price. If they're kept, that is, not available in your auction, displaying their inflation-adjusted price seems pointless. Further, if you put inflation-adjusted prices on the keepers, well, there's no inflation at that point anymore, right? This isn't a new-site issue, this is the way the tool worked on the old site for, well, ever.

As far as the way the values of the non-keepers are moving: I was doing some testing last night and identified at least one bug that's likely contributing to what you're seeing here... but would like to take a closer look and see if there's anything else in play in your scenario.

[billyrohr]

Ray - here are my settings

[billyrohr]

Part 2

[billyrohr]

Part 3

[billyrohr]

Part 4

[billyrohr]

part 5 - Post Keeper Values

[billyrohr]

Rats - just noticed you wanted my to email rather than post. My apologies.

It does not make sense to me that HQ intentionally reflects the Keeper Frozen Salary as that players "$Val". "$Val" ostensibly is HQ's auction value for said player's stats in an inflation-neutral environment under the league-specific settings. Yordan Alvarez's statistics are not worth $23 because he is frozen at that price. All other things equal, Alvarez' stats are worth MORE than his original $34 "$Val" when he is kept below market, since more stats have been removed than total dollars. HQ's presentation presents the opposite picture. a much more intuitive way to present that info would be to add a column, probably immediately to the left of "$Val", called '"Salary" or whatever, reflecting the frozen salary.

I would also argue failing to reflect the kept player's inflation adjusted price is not pointless. I want to know the true value of my (and everyone else's) keepers. Perhaps Alvarez is keeper today, until another team makes me a trade offer. I already know what his salary cap hit is (his frozen salary). What I don't know, and want the CDG to show me, is his inflation adjusted value. The confusion I had with the value screen is that it 1) DOES NOT show inflation adjusted vales after keepers are entered, AND 2) HQ is using "$Val" and salary interchangeably, which seems to be problematic since they are most definitely not the same thing. In my original post I did not know that I would NOT see inflation adjusted values on the web and would ONLY see inflation adjusted values in the CSV (which is VERY weird, since the CSV export oughta simply be converting the data shown on the screen).

You say, "Further, if you put inflation-adjusted prices on the keepers, well, there's no inflation at that point anymore, right?" My apologies if I conveyed my concerns poorly. Let me try again. ASSUMING ALL KEEPERS ARE UNDERPRICED (all teams use HQ values), that kept player with salary < $VAL owns stats worth more than they were in a world w/ zero keepers (where $3120 available salary can buy $3120 available stats). The instant I keep player #1, Yordan Alvarez at $23, his $34 $VAL of statistics is worth more than $34. How much more is a function of all other keepers' additional salary v. $VAL. Reflecting Alavarez' inflation adjusted $VAL and salary DOES NOT remove inflation, it simply shows the true value of his stats, given that they've been bought at a discount.

Presentation on the web page aside, the much more important issue is the CSV export, which shows top bats LOSING VALUE as I show in my 2:08am post. In case a screen of the CSV is hlpful, I'll put that up too.

Thanks for all your help working thru this. This tool has the potential to be so incredibly helpful.

[billyrohr]

Well, I tried to upload the top 4o bats from the CSV, but I'm being told I've hit my upload quota...

[RAY@HQ]

No worries, screenshots here are fine. I'll try to reproduce the behavior tonight.

I do get your larger point, thanks for the additional explanation. You're correct that we're technically conflating salary and value with the keepers... how I prefer to think of it is that we're fixing the value of the keepers at their salary, which is kind of the essential point of calculating inflation.

I can understand your desire to see inflated value in the way you describe, but a) there's no real draft-table utility to that number, and draft-table utility is our primary motivation here; and b) what you're describing would be incredibly complex, in that it's essentially a custom calculation for every single keeper to calculate their single inflated value against the entire player pool, ie run JUST Alvarez's value against the keepers and other projected values in the entire player pool, and then "release" Alvarez back to the player pool, pick up anonther keeper and run just THEIR value, etc. Literally in supporting this tool for the neighborhood of 20 years, I can't recall anyone asking for it to work this way. And I don't think we could even if we wanted to.

[JonE]

I've never used CDG or MACK to input a keeper list, so take the following post with a grain of salt. But it sounds to me as though the ideal solution would be to have two columns: an uninflated or true value, and an inflated or keeper price. That way you might see

True Inf/Keep LgTm
B Witt $37 $8 Barons
Y Alvarez $34 $23 Monarchs
J Ramirez $32 $45 ( )

Et cetera. (If you don't enter team names for keepers, maybe just a Y/N flag.)

To be sure, I'm no programmer, so I have no idea how you'd go about running two separate value calculations on every player.

Now that I think of it, though, exactly this functionality is available in Rotolab. On the Draft screen, you can toggle inflation on and off to see the inflated and uninflated values of every player in the free agent pool. Not only that, inflation is dynamically recalculated as players are purchased. You would only see the uninflated value for keepers on the Editor screen, and the keeper price with the other contract prices on the Roster screen; you wouldn't see them together. (End of plug.)

I will also say this: I agree it doesn't make sense that the inflated Val of non-keepers is so similar to their non-inflated Val. If you total the Val of the top 168 hitters and 108 pitchers, that should add up to $3120. If it doesn't, then it's fishy.

[rogueagent]

I have seen the same behavior, inflation is not reflected in non keeper values.

[RAY@HQ]

Expecting this to be fixed today.

[RAY@HQ]

Expecting this to be fixed today.

Next on the list, hopefully tonight.