How Much Will Top Players' Projections Change Between Now & Opening Day?

[Stat Boy]

I ask this question because I like to make my own adjustments on the projections in RotoLab, and usually wait until too close to Draft Day in order to have as much info and up-to-date projections as possible. But I've noticed that in past seasons, in general, that the top hitters and pitchers projections don't really change between now and opening day (unless, of course, there's an injury or some other playing time impact on them).

In fact, my take on things is that, at this point, you've made your projections and the only thing that affects them are when you adjust for playing time, up or down. To my mind, you don't change the fundamentals you've already taken into account by, say, Spring performance, or reporting of a new pitch or uptick in velocity, etc.

Would you say this is accurate? Do you think I could start making my adjustments for the top players much earlier, safe in the knowledge that outside of any obvious news events that they aren't going to change? Or do you guys still fiddle with things at this point with the top players? In other words, will someone like Juan Soto or Max Scherzer's projection change between now and Opening Day?

Once I start making changes to players projections in RotoLab, it's a tedious process to compare daily updates in the Projections, so I'd really only prefer to do that in the last 3 or 4 days before my draft and am making adjustments on all the players. So I guess I'm just looking for guidance as to when it's safe to assume the projections aren't going to be changing (outside of injuries, trades, other outside impacts) for the established hitters and pitchers who have a secure lineup spot or place in the rotation. Thanks!

[Whistler]

I have an additional question along this line. Currently, HQ intentionally overprojects (or underprojects) PT (more or less than 100% for each position). Then presumably at least a few days before Opening Day, the %s are adjusted to 100%, or once it has become clear how PT on a given team is expected to be distributed.

So the question is, in the last week before Opening Day, how much can the adjustment affect values (as calculated by CDG or Rotolab). Or what is the maximum a $value could change, simply based on adjusting the %s to 100%. Is it $1, or $2, or <$1? Thanks. Just looking for a ballpark. I recall a few instances where values changed more than I expected (at draft time, relative to prep time).

[RAY@HQ]

In fact, my take on things is that, at this point, you've made your projections and the only thing that affects them are when you adjust for playing time, up or down. To my mind, you don't change the fundamentals you've already taken into account by, say, Spring performance, or reporting of a new pitch or uptick in velocity, etc.

Would you say this is accurate? Do you think I could start making my adjustments for the top players much earlier, safe in the knowledge that outside of any obvious news events that they aren't going to change? Or do you guys still fiddle with things at this point with the top players? In other words, will someone like Juan Soto or Max Scherzer's projection change between now and Opening Day?

Yes, this is pretty accurate. That doesn't mean there will be no performance-based changes (I just knocked 15 pts off of Cody Bellinger's BA yesterday because... well, it's not important. But that's uncommon at this time of year. Not impossible, but uncommon.

So the question is, in the last week before Opening Day, how much can the adjustment affect values (as calculated by CDG or Rotolab). Or what is the maximum a $value could change, simply based on adjusting the %s to 100%. Is it $1, or $2, or <$1? Thanks. Just looking for a ballpark. I recall a few instances where values changed more than I expected (at draft time, relative to prep time).

It really should be on the order of a dollar or less. When I wrote my most recent article on projections last week, we were averaging about 109% allocation in the batter and pitcher pools. So there's 9% playing time to be weeded out. That's probably gone down a bit already. There will inevitably be some spots where a player jumps around, but that's usually as much about them clarifying their own role in the spring and less just about the general consolidation of projections.