Prospect grades

[Snider]

Hi Ray - As you know I have been a subscriber for a very long time. I have never completely understood your grades given to prospects. I understand that a 9 prospect is better than an 8 prospect. But when it comes to the grades that confuses me. Is an 8A prospect with more certainty a better prospect than a 9C prospect? Is an 8A prospect better than a 9B? How about 8B vs 9D? Anyway - The numbers I understand. The probability of success and achieving peak production coupled with the grades confuses me. Could you please help?

[JonE]

One very simplified way to look at it is to think of the number as a representation of a player's ceiling, and the letter as a representation of the player's floor. An A means he has a very good chance of achieving whatever his number grade promises, while an E has a distant chance at it. So you can read a player graded as 9E as saying, at his best he might hit like Jeff Bagwell, but he also has flaws big enough that might translate into a poor career or never even make the majors.

Whether an 8A is a "better" prospect than a 9C depends on the context of what you're trying to do. If you are trying to evaluate a trade made by your favorite real-life team, and your guys gave up one for the other, there's not a tremendous difference; they're both pretty good. (That's especially true if they are A-level prospects, because there's still time for both to develop.) If you are trying to decide which one to select in your minor-league draft, then it depends on whether your team needs the player to turn into major league talent or just serve as bait in a trade.

[RAY@HQ]

For these questions I always point to Brent's annual Org Reports Primer. That's the best explanation we can offer. Hope it helps.

Key paragraph:

n the end, YOU make the call for YOUR team. Some owners don’t mind the risk, and just want to shoot for upside. It is likely those owners will have more 9Ds on their roster. Others may want more sure things, and are going to lean towards the 8As and 8Bs, or even 7As, who are meant to have lower risk in their profiles. It’s just how this works.

[Whistler]

I look at the writeups. Take todays Tampa Bay Taj Bradley, 8B, in whom I have some interest, but don't know too much about him. I read

...a converted high school OF. In other words, a strong armed individual still learning how to pitch.

Bradley saw his whiff rate on his SL drop in Triple-A, which effected his overall Dom rate. He'll likely return to Triple-A to start 2023 with a chance at the big leagues by mid-May.

To get to a mid-rotation outcome or better, he must find a workable third offering; the splitter provides the best chance at that. Doing so would help maintain Dom in the big leagues

So this means to me that as an 8a, he is 90% potential of being an upside mid-rotation starter, and not likely an elite SP. That seems inline with the writeup.

Then I go to another source, in this case FG, who also says he needs a workable third offering with mid-rotation upside if he does. Baseball America also taps him as potential mid-rotation arm. So whether or not this is scouts accreting to a common conclusion, or independently saying the same thing, Bradley appears to be a 2-pitch pitcher, upside mid-rotation. Plus, he's a Ray, which means likely low IP starter if he indeed makes it to the rotation.

In pitchers, I try to determine whether this is a potentially elite pitcher, or is just another mid-rotation arm. In my leagues, I really don't have much use for drafting mid-rotation arms, so he falls off my list.

So to me, the 8B is just a starting point for pitchers, and like the evaluators, I dig deeper and draw my own conclusions. Labor intensive (and interesting), but I don't think there is a shortcut to determining whether you might be interested in a prospect.

[SteveL]

Mr Whistler, what is your per pitcher charge for in depth evaluation review?