2022 MLB Projections

[RAY@HQ]

Tonight's update: the above-mentioned stat/archive process is running as expected, should finish overnight. I've got my offline projection files as vetted as they're going to get, ready to upload tomorrow and continue debugging online. Probably start that process early tomorrow afternoon.

The 2022 Forecaster commentaries are already on the PLink pages, though.

[RAY@HQ]

Saturday update: projections are live, and for a first set, they look really good (if I do say so myself). Couple of notes:

The only global issue I see is that in the raw stats/projections files, we're still set to 10-game position eligibility, which we had modified last year. We need to flip that back to 20. If you need 20g eligibility now, you can get it from the Custom Draft Guide... the configurable eligibility setting in there seems to be working.

Otherwise, I've got a bunch of individual projections that need adding, generally for low-PT players. That's always the case after this first load, so I'll be chipping away at those over my next several updates.

But a lot of stuff that we don't usually have this early, like good NFBC ADP data, is in place already. Any other issues you see, let me know. I'll be continuing to poke around all weekend (and beyond).

[Ted.vinson]

Liam Hendricks’s save total of 14 looks low to me

[RAY@HQ]

Definitely.

[Hugo the Great]

Csv??

[RAY@HQ]

Csv??

Knew I forgot something. Updated now.

[Snider]

Thank you Ray. I have gone through the hitters and they look good. On to the pitchers but thank you very much.

[Snider]

Ray - Why do some pitchers show up on the depth charts with a certain percentage of innings pitched but have no projections. Two examples would be Alex Vesia and Victor Gonzalez. As an example Vesia shows 5% PT with 10% saves and 10% holds but there are no projections for him? The same gores for Gonzalez. There are several others like that.

Why do pitchers like Dylan Bundy have zero quality starts when they are allocated 11% PT. There are many pitchers that I would expect to see QS but they don't have any.

Thank you - John

[RAY@HQ]

Two separate answers:

- for the guys with no projections, it's just because I'm still filling in projections for the low-PT% players who weren't in the Forecaster. I thought I was down to the 4% and under level for pitchers, but someone like Vesia may have gotten a PT% bump since I last look. I'll be doing another round of projection adds for those guys this weekend.

- the QS projection is based on GS projections and BF/G thresholds to determine who is a SP. Guys like Bundy who spent last year in a split SP/RP role (and openers) sometimes miss those filters. I go through periodically and force their BF/G and GS into the required ranges so a QS projection gets added. I'll take care of that this weekend.

[Bill Macey]

It looks like Andrew Vaughn is projected for 60% of the CHW playing time at 2B. As awesome and hilarious as that might be, I don't think it's quite right....

[bolton wanderers]

Two pitching oddities: Wade Leblanc with minus 1 for losses and Lowther with a 0-17 win, loss record

[RAY@HQ]

It looks like Andrew Vaughn is projected for 60% of the CHW playing time at 2B. As awesome and hilarious as that might be, I don't think it's quite right....

Ha, now that's funny. We'll get that cleaned up.

[RAY@HQ]

Two pitching oddities: Wade Leblanc with minus 1 for losses and Lowther with a 0-17 win, loss record

I stand by that 0-17!

Just kidding... thanks for noting these.