2022 MLB Projections

[Snider]

Under normal circumstances, you have your first set of projections for 2022 out in mid- December, if I am not mistaken. With a baseball lockout expected to happen later tonight, will the projections be out at their normal time? How about some of your great articles to get us geared up for the upcoming season whenever it might be such as Facts/Flukes and others. Thank you very much.

John

[RAY@HQ]

Projections are still going to be mid-December. Article content will start to rev up next week... Org reports, etc.

[Whistler]

Update on specific mid-December date for projections on site and CDG?

[RAY@HQ]

From my GM's Office column last week: (https://www.baseballhq.com/content/g...ockout-roadmap)

Those articles will lead us up to December 17th(*), when we'll debut our initial 2022 projections here on the site.

(* - We'll aim for Friday the 17th, but it will probably be sometime that weekend when the projections are actually debugged and ready for use.)

[Howie M]

reminds me of the opening of a major new casino in Atlantic City almost 20 years ago, no kidding.

in both cases, if an exact time is announced, traffic would crash everything.

so no specific, other than sometime that weekend. it's a good problem to have!

[RAY@HQ]

It's not that, exactly... more like (I apologize if I say this every year), as much as I try to scan, cross-check, edit the projections offline before posting, there's inevitably just a huge pile of stuff that becomes obvious when they get posted online, and it takes some time to work through those issues. So, when you see the first projections (which will very likely be Friday), don't get too attached to them... I'll need the weekend to clean them up.

I just spent tonight prepping the batter projections, those are probably 75% ready for Friday. I'll get pitchers to same point tomorrow night. Our tech team has some work to do on the site to finish closing out 2021 on site, archiving the 21 data and rolling the site to 22. That will happen by mid-week. Thursday night I'll do the last 25% for both batters and pitchers (which is mostly accounting for player movement since the end of the season, re-running park factors etc). Then on Friday, I'll push the big "upload" button, and we'll see what breaks and fight our way through that for a couple of days.

Oh, and if anyone really can't wait that long and wants to chew on something, I updated the Park Factors page on the site last weekend. We didn't do that last year because we didn't want to put too much weight on 2020, so the data's moved around quite a bit. There's some weird/non-intuitive stuff in there, I may have to write something at some point. But anyway, that's a step in the projections process, as is the posting of the Major League Equivalency spreadsheets, which should be on site this week as well.

[RABohms]

It's not that, exactly... more like (I apologize if I say this every year), as much as I try to scan, cross-check, edit the projections offline before posting, there's inevitably just a huge pile of stuff that becomes obvious when they get posted online, and it takes some time to work through those issues. So, when you see the first projections (which will very likely be Friday), don't get too attached to them... I'll need the weekend to clean them up.

I just spent tonight prepping the batter projections, those are probably 75% ready for Friday. I'll get pitchers to same point tomorrow night. Our tech team has some work to do on the site to finish closing out 2021 on site, archiving the 21 data and rolling the site to 22. That will happen by mid-week. Thursday night I'll do the last 25% for both batters and pitchers (which is mostly accounting for player movement since the end of the season, re-running park factors etc). Then on Friday, I'll push the big "upload" button, and we'll see what breaks and fight our way through that for a couple of days.

Oh, and if anyone really can't wait that long and wants to chew on something, I updated the Park Factors page on the site last weekend. We didn't do that last year because we didn't want to put too much weight on 2020, so the data's moved around quite a bit. There's some weird/non-intuitive stuff in there, I may have to write something at some point. But anyway, that's a step in the projections process, as is the posting of the Major League Equivalency spreadsheets, which should be on site this week as well.

Which years are included in the updated park factors now?

[RAY@HQ]

2019-21 (as per the label on the top of the page)

[RABohms]

2019-21 (as per the label on the top of the page)

thanks for confirming. Just wasn't sure if 2020 was now included or if only 2021 was added.

[RAY@HQ]

Right... so the changes are 2017-18 out of the data, 2020-21 in.

[Snider]

Hi Ray - Looking forward to the new 2022 MLB projections soon. My question is this - will the easy downloadable CSV file for hitters/pitchers be the same as the not so easy downloadable HTML file? Over the last couple of years, I have alerted you to differences in the two files with the HTML being the more accurate of the two but much more difficult to download. Thank you very much.

John

[RAY@HQ]

That's the plan. I think we found the root cause of that ongoing issue at the end of the season.

[Whistler]

It's not that, exactly... more like (I apologize if I say this every year), as much as I try to scan, cross-check, edit the projections offline before posting, there's inevitably just a huge pile of stuff that becomes obvious when they get posted online, and it takes some time to work through those issues. So, when you see the first projections (which will very likely be Friday), don't get too attached to them... I'll need the weekend to clean them up.

I always find the obvious outliers by loading the stats into my CDG teams and looking for the obvious outliers, which are usually very few but definitely stick out mainly in the lower registers, and are more frequently pitchers it seems. I assume you guys do something similar.

It has to be painful to do pitching projections in this era of twice through the order, 3 batter minimums, and deep bullpens with undefined roles or closer by committee.

[RAY@HQ]

I always find the obvious outliers by loading the stats into my CDG teams and looking for the obvious outliers, which are usually very few but definitely stick out mainly in the lower registers, and are more frequently pitchers it seems. I assume you guys do something similar.

Yeah, same. All of the offline Excel filtering I do just isn't as effective as looking at the CDG outputs once we're working online. Only problem is, at that point whatever I can see, you can see too.

[RAY@HQ]

Update: projections will NOT be posted today. Our tech guys still need to run our database processes to archive 2021 and roll the site year to 2022. That's a lengthy process that we're planning to run overnight tonight. I'll keep working on the projections offline today, and (assuming all goes well) they'll hit the site tomorrow (prob early afternoon). Sorry for the delay!