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Projections glitches like -20+ projected values

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  • Projections glitches like -20+ projected values

    I don't believe that Huascar Ynoa will put up a 7.12 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 86 IP of a ROS value of minus $23 - mainly because no one who pitches like that could possible be allowed to darken a team's door to the tune of that many innings.

    ditto Nick Neidert - 6.82, 1,87 in 99 IP for a minus $25 value.

    hot on ARI callup Bukauskas? not if you see that minus $26 projection.

    now, Chi Chi Gonzalez minus $20 is almost believable, since the Rockies have to throw SOMEONE out there each game.

    but Dennis Santana a minus $14 for LA? and in only 26 innings?

    I noticed because I was inputting team rosters in MACK, and these render the team values useless (my Neidert may suck but he can't minus $25 suck, for instance).

    [kicks self for not titling this "Ynoa Huascar won't be a minus $23 value - but HQ projections don't"]
    NL 12-team 5x5 auction keeper. no bench, limited 'free' moves #oldschool
    our owners have a combined 292 years of experience in this 36-year-old league that is being cryogenically frozen until spring 2021.
    a redraft, no-transaction "race to the finish" served as our 2020 entertainment

  • #2
    Yeah, some of this is going to happen this year... it's the nature of using 2019 MLEs as projection baselines for guys, because we don't have anything else to go on, but clearly some guys have re-invented themselves since then.

    I stand by Chi-Chi, though.

    I'll review the others this week and sharpen them up.

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    • #3
      thanks as always, Ray.

      I actually enjoy the preseason "double-digit negatives" - I make a short list for auction day, then get a little giddy if any of them gets named in the end game

      #unsafeatanyspeed
      NL 12-team 5x5 auction keeper. no bench, limited 'free' moves #oldschool
      our owners have a combined 292 years of experience in this 36-year-old league that is being cryogenically frozen until spring 2021.
      a redraft, no-transaction "race to the finish" served as our 2020 entertainment

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      • #4
        Cleaned up a bunch of these tonight.

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        • #5
          Ray - Let me ask you about Yermin Mercedes. He is playing most every day at DH yet he has an expected playing time of 25% which is the same as it was at the beginning of the season. How far into the season do you have to get to bump up or down for that matter when the playing time projection just doesn't make sense anymore. When do the depth charts by team get reflected of what is going on. As of now you have Danny Mendick at the DH slot. I don' think he has been in the DH position once this year. Thank you very much.

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          • #6
            Sent this note to Rick Green, who handles White Sox PT for us. It's a bit of a "feel" thing, and honestly I think we've been waiting for Mercedes to cool off and lose playing time to Vaughn, and it's sort of not happening that way just yet. But I'll have Rick give it a fresh-eyed review.

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            • #7
              I should say that there are pitchers with lines like Ynoa's projected one every few years.
              10 team NL Only 5x5 auction keeper league, 20-25% inflation each year. $330 in-season salary cap

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              • #8
                Ray and I went back and forth on Chi Chi via text. I had him at -$43.

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