2016 Pitching Projections (QS)

[Snider]

Ray - There are 4 pitchers slated to be starters that have 0 quality starts in your projections. Kevin Gausman (145 IP); Alfredo Simon (174 IP); Brandon Maurer (145 IP); Kris Medlen (116 IP) are the 4 pitchers. Can you explain why you have them with 0 quaility starts or perhaps make the appropriate changes in your database projections. Thank you very much.

[RAY@HQ]

I'll fix in the next projection update. This is a common problem for guys who have worked as swingmen in the recent past. When we project QS, we only do it for guys whose projected BF/G indicates they are primarily an SP. I think we use 18.0 BF/G for that clip level... these guys are falling below that. Easy fix; I'll just chop their projected Games to push their BF/G over the clip level, and then the QS algorithm will run on them.

Thanks for the heads up. I'll try to catch these as we see role changes happening during the spring, but feel free to point out any others as you see them. It's one of thoses things that just needs eyes on it, and my eyes are in a lot of different directions at this time of year.

[Snider]

Ray - You do such a great job and are the gold standard in terms of projections. Many thanks to you and all of your people that help us so much. on another topic I am also making the assumption that each team's totals regarding holds are not yet at 100% in some cases because you are waiting for more defined roles as the spring unfolds. As we get closer to opening day - the totals should all equal 100%. Is that a correct assumption?

[RAY@HQ]

Right... you may find some teams above or below 100% holds allocation right now, just due to lack of role clarity. Those will tighten up during March.

[Dragon]

Hi Ray, when will the projections be tighten? My auction is coming up soon and would like better projections.
Seems the depth charts do not match the current projections.

[RAY@HQ]

They're being tightened constantly... literally every day. It's an iterative process from here til Opening Day... and beyond.

When you say "Depth charts don't match projections", feel free to post examples.

[Snider]

Ray - Sorry to be a nag but I still don't see any quality starts for the pitchers listed above. In your post above you suggested that you would update on your next revision and there have been a couple of them I think. Could you give us some idea when the quality start projections for these pitchers might appear? Thanks again.

[RAY@HQ]

Yeah, I haven't done a manual update since I posted last week. I should get to that in the next day or so.

[Dragon]

Hi Ray,

Only reason, I am bringing this up is due to our early auction date in a few weeks due to holidays. I few examples are you listed Kris Medlen and Carlos Villaneuva as fifth starters in the depth charts but projected them with middle relief stats.

You guys are the best and I need to tighten the projections so those of us that have early auctions can tinker and prepare.

Thanks again

[RAY@HQ]

Sorry, had to put focus of last few days into the First Pitch program, which kicks off this weekend. That's done now, so projections will definitely be updated tomorrow.

[RAY@HQ]

OK, the projection update is done. Every pitcher who has > 90 IP right now has a QS projection.