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I'm curious to know why we are so bullish on Martin's HR/FB rate this year? Currently projected at 20% which would match his career best rate from 2012 and seemed a bit outlierish both then and now, IMO. Obviously the move to TOR will help some, but 20% is higher than the projected rate for some of the elite sluggers (see Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Adam Jones, Justin Upton).
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Let's see... it was 13% in the Forecaster, so the reason is definitely the park change. The PIT-to-TOR park factor change is enormous for RH power... the PNC park factor is -42% for RH HR, and the TOR factor is +25%. That explains the change right there. And it's probably not coincidental that the number starts to match 2011-12 in NY.
Still, it might be a tick or two too high. I'll review in this week's projections update. -
Gotcha. Yeah I figured the park change had something to do with the bump, but wondered if it was a bit high relative to the rates of the elite sluggers. Thanks for the explanation and review.Comment
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I thought so, too, but the huge swing in park numbers satisfied me. The PIT-to-TOR switcheroo is the biggest possible swing for RH power hitters (US Cellular is tied).- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
'Put Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame!'Comment
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FYI I made a very minor downward adjustment last week.Comment
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