Pitching Logs, ERA to qERA

[elias]

In using the Pitching Logs, when you are evaluating a specific pitcher, is it appropriate to compare current ERA to qERA when attempting to predict future performance???

In other words, if current ERA is 3.44 and qERA is 4.53 (Lackey), you are generally expecting the ERA to rise, and if ERA is 5.96 and qERA is 4.96 (Bonderman) are you generally expecting ERA to fall?

[GERALD@HQ]

I think it can be used in that manner, but to a great extent. qERA is based soley on a pitcher's ratio of DOM/DIS starts as measured by his PQS scores. Then using the chart found here:

http://www.baseballhq.com/overview/glossary/qERA/index.html

it determines what his ERA should be when compared to other pitchers with similar DOM/DIS ratios.

A better indicator of future performance is their xERA, which is based more on their current skill level, and takes out most of the factors that are out of the pitcher's control (bad bullpen, etc.) . taken together both measures can help validate whether it is correct to expect a pitcher's ERA to move siginficantly in the future.

Hope this helps.