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  • PD@HQ
    replied
    Originally posted by GERALD@HQ
    Patrick, the reason you couldn't think of his first name is because he has like eight or something: Lorenzo Romano Amedeo Carlo Avogadro, conte di Quaregna e di Cerreto. Apparently he went by Amedeo.
    Yeah, that's what I thought.

    Actually I think that's only five names; everything after the comma is a title ("Count of Quaregna and Cerreto").

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Patrick,

    the reason you couldn't think of his first name is because he has like eight or something

    Lorenzo Romano Amedeo Carlo Avogadro, conte di Quaregna e di Cerreto

    is his full name. Apparently he went by Amedeo.

    Leave a comment:


  • PD@HQ
    replied
    Originally posted by hqforums
    It's Patrick Davitt's work, in fact, that established these rules.
    Geez, I'm blushing. Me, Max Planck and Avogadro, whose first name I don't know, but I've ruled out "Earl."

    Seriously, though, it's like Sir Isaac Newton said when he was asked about inventing those little fig cookies: "If we can see farther, it is because we stand on the shoulders of giants." I got interested in the idea because of all the great discussion and work done here looking at H% for pitchers, which principle I instinctively (and erroneously) applied to hitters.

    Personally, I think we're going to find that the Philosopher's Stone in al of this is going to be the Line Drive/FB/GB stuff. And we will mathematically "prove" what every baseball person in history ahs known in his gut: Hitters who git line drives have better results than those who hit the others. It willbe in the balance of those three batted-ball outcomes that predictive modelling will live.

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  • PD@HQ
    replied
    Originally posted by hqforums
    ...if you see a hitter with a 24% hit rate, we cannot immediately assume that he is due for a surge without knowing his hit rate from at least the last three seasons.
    A very important point. Maybe one possible format would be to include three-eyar rate in a column with this year's rate next to it.[/QUOTE]

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  • Bryan
    replied
    Thanks

    Thanks for the feedback. I hope you add it soon, as I think it is a useful data point.

    I wonder if the variation in hit percentage can be related to the type of hitters that the individual is; their groundball/flyball ratio. I think Michael Wolverton in BaseballProspectus did some work that further took Voros' theory and slightly refined it based up the type of pitcher (GB/FB).

    Once again, thanks for the feedback and the formula. Just waiting for my 2nd half surge to another title!

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  • hqforums
    replied
    Yes, we haven't added it to our analytic arsenal yet, but probably will soon. Biggest reason is that it may encourage abuse and we want to make sure we've firmly established its value. Folks are used to benchmarking 30% like they do with pitchers, but batting hit rate ONLY benches to that batter's historical levels.

    So if you see a hitter with a 24% hit rate, we cannot immediately assume that he is due for a surge without knowing his hit rate from at least the last three seasons. If his previous seasons' mean level is anywhere up to about 26% or 27%, then his 24% rate may be within an expected and acceptable range. However, if his historical levels are around 30%, only then can we use his current hit rate as a leading indicator.

    It's Patrick Davitt's work, in fact, that established these rules.

    RON@HQ

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  • PD@HQ
    replied
    I don't think it's widely used or recognized (Baeball HQ, on the cutting edge). It's not in our hiiers files, either, although pitchers' H% is.

    If you have Excel, download the Excel versions of the file, and then in an empty column use the formula:

    =(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)

    using cell references of course!

    Leave a comment:


  • Bryan
    started a topic Hit percentage

    Hit percentage

    Is there a site that tracks batter hit percentage? It was in this year's Forecaster and I found it very helpful.

    With trade season in full swing, I think its a great tool to see who's performance is an aberration and who's is legit before making a deal.

    Thanks
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