Calculating Earned Dollar Values

[staz]

Discovering I have no clue how to calculate 2013 earned dollar values. Need to first figure out what the universe will be: our 12 owners can roster anywhere from 25 to 40 players each at any point during the season.

Any help, or links to help, would be greatly appreciated.

[Whistler]

Custom Draft Guide for 2013 YTD?

[staz]

I have everything in Excel already, so I just need the theory. Meaning, do I simply take the total auction $ spent and distribute evenly over each scoring category, then (what?)...

I'm really only interested in comparing draft day price vs. final earned dollars.

[Todd Zola]

I'd do it two ways.

1. Run them "normally" as if every player was on a roster all season. Conventionally, in your league, 168 (12 x 14) hitters and 132 (12 x 11) pitchers get value. It's done the same way pre-season values are determined.

2. Give everyone that played a piece of the pie. ONLY use the stats they accumulated while on an active roster. Divide the auction money as

AUCTION BUDGET x 12 (teams) x SPLIT

SPLIT is the historical hit to pitch split your league usually ends up with. WIth 11 P it may be different, but the tendency is about 69% HIT and 31 % PIT so that's what I'll use - also assuming the standard $260 budget.

HIT - 12 x 260 x .69 = $2152.80
PIT - 12 x 260 x .31 = $967.20

Each has 5 categories so divide each by 5 and assign $430.56 to each hit cat $193.44 to each pitching cat.

The divvy up each CAT$ based on percentage of stats contributed based on your league - again ONLY using stats on the active roster.

You'll find the "real" value earned in number 2 is less than number 1.

What you glean from it depends on what you are looking for -- once the season is over I care more about tomorrow than yesterday.

Final point -- the split "should" be 50/50 for end-of-season values, but for practical (read - comparison) purposes, it can match that used to draft.

[JonE]

Valuation thread!

I should start by saying that the very simplest way to do this is to compare the prices paid to the R$ column in the 2013 data. As Whistler says, use the CDG to generate the R$ values (select 2013 YTD data from the appropriate drop-down box, where it now defaults to "2014 Projected").

There are two major theoretical schools for valuation. The first is called Standings Gain Points, the second is usually called Replacement or Value Over Replacement. The difference between them boils down to this question: Should you value a player based on how much he helps you rise in the standings, or on how much more he helps you than a free agent $1-type player? HQ uses a version of Standings Gain Points to generate R$.

If you want to do it yourself and/or understand the basics of valuation, there are plenty of interesting articles on the interweb. Start by looking for "Standings Gain Points." SGP is probably more prevalent in the fantasy world. Replacement theory is harder to find under that term because the word is pretty common, but you can look over at Mastersball.com or a few other places.

But really, the simplest thing to do is to use the CDG.

[Whistler]

.

I'm really only interested in comparing draft day price vs. final earned dollars.

Also, if this is your main goal, you need to make sure you set up your final earned dollars assumptions to match your draft assumptions. If you use a different valuation method for draft versus end result, it will tell you nothing.

[jbluestone]

I thought hq uses percentage valuation?

[RAY@HQ]

Yes, we use PVM on the site.

[JonE]

OK, my bad. I was relying on the Glossary definition of R$, which says that HQ uses SGP.

[RAY@HQ]

Obviously that needs updating. Thanks for the heads-up.

[staz]

Also, if this is your main goal, you need to make sure you set up your final earned dollars assumptions to match your draft assumptions. If you use a different valuation method for draft versus end result, it will tell you nothing.

Excellent point, apples to apples. I did use CDG to set up my pre-draft base valuations (with some specific category weighting) that I will use to run the 2013 YTD stats - glad I took a screen shot last March!

I usually set up 2 prices for my draft: the base valuation direct from CDG, and then a predicted draft price that tweaks CDG to consider expected inflation pockets, ADP influence, reliability history, league drafting behavior history, etc. I use the latter mainly to develop a draft budget.

In comparing the 3 sets of prices (strict CDG, predicted draft price, and actual earned), I'm hoping to find some league-specific tendencies that I can exploit in 2014, and start to find answers to questions like: If the prices for reliable power hitters ages 24-32 continue their meteoric inflationary rise, where should those dollars come from (meaning, what should be cheaper than usual)?

[I went down the SGP road 8 or 9 years ago, but ended up with tons of steals and saves, and not much else (probably didn't execute the theory as well as I could have). Art McGee's book is a great read, but his SGP theory relies on projected stats a bit too heavily for my taste.]

Thanks to Todd as well.. glad you're now a regular on the podcast!

[PD@HQ]

Be careful not to confuse inflation with league tendencies.

[mtgannon]

Recent BaseballHQ subscriber, so I apologize for the simplistic question in advance. Last year was the first year our long-time keeper (16 teams, 23 man rosters, 5x5 roto) league used an auction so I am trying to figure out how much players earned under our modified, weighted category scoring system. I have loaded my league into MACK and if I am reading this thread correctly, if I run the league in CDG using 2013YTD as my time period, I will generate actual $ values for my league from 2013. Is that correct? We had a lot of very large overpays last year, so I am trying to evaluate $ earned vs player salaries from last year as I evaluate keeper strategy for 2014.

Thank you.

[staz]

Some pretty interesting preliminary findings in my profit study.

I used CDG to compare the projected opening day $ vs. earned $ at the end of 2013 for players kept and drafted to determine how our 12 owners either won it or lost it. Most interesting fact is that although our league's champ tanked with his hitting keepers (includes Braun), he realized the best profit from the hitters he drafted. The top 4 contributors to this were: A. Soriano (Profit=$12), J. Lowrie (Profit=$9), J. Castro (Profit=$7) and K. Seager (Profit=$6), guys I admittedly wasn't paying very much attention to on draft day. He fell into a very cheap Soriano, getting the #25 OF (preseason rank) for $5. He got the #25 catcher, Castro for $1, and the #19 3B Seager for $7. He paid $1 for Lowrie, who I did not project to even be drafted.

I think drafting these players shows our league's champ embraced risk maybe more than other owners. He tempered this risk, first, by by focusing it on the less-risky hitters rather than pitchers, who also rounded out the bottom of his lineup relatively cheaply, had some history of hitting skill, and have been held back by injury in one form or another. Digging a little deeper, each had rising walk rates going into 2013.

So my takeaway is that $34 profit, regardless of where it comes from, is still $34 profit. Spreading risk among multiple mid- to bottom-level hitters with demonstrated skill and plate patience was our champ's key to success.

I ask myself, what mid to endgame tarnished hitters will shine up nicely in 2014 - who are this year's Soriano, David Ortiz, Marlon Byrd or Josh Donaldson?

[SteveL]

Some pretty interesting preliminary findings in my profit study.

I used CDG to compare the projected opening day $ vs. earned $ at the end of 2013 for players kept and drafted to determine how our 12 owners either won it or lost it. Most interesting fact is that although our league's champ tanked with his hitting keepers (includes Braun), he realized the best profit from the hitters he drafted. The top 4 contributors to this were: A. Soriano (Profit=$12), J. Lowrie (Profit=$9), J. Castro (Profit=$7) and K. Seager (Profit=$6), guys I admittedly wasn't paying very much attention to on draft day. He fell into a very cheap Soriano, getting the #25 OF (preseason rank) for $5. He got the #25 catcher, Castro for $1, and the #19 3B Seager for $7. He paid $1 for Lowrie, who I did not project to even be drafted.

I think drafting these players shows our league's champ embraced risk maybe more than other owners. He tempered this risk, first, by by focusing it on the less-risky hitters rather than pitchers, who also rounded out the bottom of his lineup relatively cheaply, had some history of hitting skill, and have been held back by injury in one form or another. Digging a little deeper, each had rising walk rates going into 2013.

So my takeaway is that $34 profit, regardless of where it comes from, is still $34 profit. Spreading risk among multiple mid- to bottom-level hitters with demonstrated skill and plate patience was our champ's key to success.

I ask myself, what mid to endgame tarnished hitters will shine up nicely in 2014 - who are this year's Soriano, David Ortiz, Marlon Byrd or Josh Donaldson?

Great post. Thanks.

This is why I'm paying close attention to the breakout/undervalued threads.

http://forums.baseballhq.com/showthread.php?84068-AL-Breakouts-Rebounds-Undervalued-Players-of-Interest-for-2014

http://forums.baseballhq.com/showthread.php?84069-NL-Breakouts-Rebounds-and-Undervalued-Players-of-Interest-for-2014