Bargains or blunders?

[kjordan]

A wide variance between my projection for a player and his ADP seems like an opportunity to claim a bargain. However, sometimes the gap is SO wide that it makes me wonder if the rest of the drafting world sees something that I don't.

Examples (I am in a 4x4 league)
Brett Myers: The Forecaster projects 3.33 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / 3.0 CMD. That puts him in my top 30 SP, but his ADP is just 177 among SP.
Dylan Gee: Forecaster says 3.93 / 1.25 / 2.6. He is my #51 SP but he is going at 166 among SP, according to ADP.
Kyle Seager: Projecting .265 / 20 / 75 / 12 makes him my #4 2B and #46 offensive player. ADP puts him at #15 2B and 172 overall.

I love a bargain as much as the next guy but you know what they say about "too good to be true". What are your thoughts on these players and disparities? Thanks

[SteveL]

Not a Brett Myers fan, and think HQ is a little too exuberant. I don't like the flipping back and forth between pen and starting, don't like the move to the AL (even tho it is the Central), and last year as a closer his DOM was only 5.6, with a lucky 78% Strand and 28% Hit rate. No thanks.

I am bullish on Gee, and think the fanalytic world doesn't really know him and may be worried about his post-injury status. Good buying opportunity, IMO.

If Seager qualifies at 2B in your league, good for you. But I agree that in no way is he the #4 2B in mixed 4X4. On the other hand, he may not be that well known to the masses, playing on a west coast team that is not very good. Knock down the homers and RBI's a little and you'll probably have him about right. Great opportunity, especially in a keeper league, tho he'll probably lose 2B qualification after this year.

[NICK@HQ]

I like Myers, but I see risk there. Not a prime target for me, but someone I would settle on.

Gee is a prime target for me. Get him cheap and reap the rewards.

Seager is not a #4 2B in any real sense, and as SteveL notes he won't be a 2B after this season, but he's OK, not great.

Of the three, Gee is the one I want.

[kjordan]

Thanks Guys

Cano, Pedroia, and Phillips are certainly better than Seager and lets say Aaron Hill is too. Kinsler runs but his average is an anvil and his RBI should decrease in a weaker lineup. Walker and Kendrick are nothing special and it is hard to trust Weeks & Utley to stay healthy. In a re-draft league, how many of those guys would you draft ahead of Seager, who has upside and 3B eligibility as well?

[Michael@HQ]

I think the Brett Myers projecton is too optimistic. Sometimes we get fooled by relievers becoming starters.

I like the Kyle Seager projection. I was critical when we were projecting only 15 HRs for him earlier this off-season but like the 20 HR projection.

[kjordan]

Thanks Michael

I am with you on SP vs RP, but Myers was a SP as recently as 2011 and a really good one in 2010. That sets him apart from a guy fresh out of the pen, dontcha think?

Thanks for the support on the Seager projection. Where do you rank him among 2B for 2013?

[Michael@HQ]

We're currently projecting a 3.62 ERA for Myers. Yes, he was quite good as a starter in 2010, but that's not really been true for his career as a whole.
- A rule of thumb is to convert a relief ERA to starter's ERA, add 0.75 - 1.00.
- For Myers himself, he has a 4.27 ERA as a starter and a 3.36 ERA as a reliever. That worked out a little too tidy, but it's obviously right in line with my rule of thumb.

I could be wrong about why we're projecting a 3.62 ERA for Myers, but my guess is that we're putting too much on his 3.31 ERA in the bullpen.