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What do negative players values mean?

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  • What do negative players values mean?

    I am a newbe. I have seen that some players have a negative draft value.
    What does this mean?
    How should I use it?
    What would be the "real" value of a -2 player?
    PTBob

  • #2
    Welcome, PTBob...

    First of all, you need to be aware of what numbers you're looking at. In Playerlink, you're looking at 5x5 values for 12-team AL-only or NL-only leagues, depending on the player. (The R$ column is 4x4 scoring, same universe.)

    In the projection files, you get those same values in the AL/NL only projection files. In the mixed-league files, we use a $12 designation. That's a 12-team mixed-league 5x5 value.

    Then, of course, there's the Custom Draft Guide, where all the values are customized to the inputs you set up for your league.

    Now that you know what you're looking at, the answer to your question is this: in whatever player universe you're looking at, exactly enough players get positive value to fill the roster spots in the league. If you're in a 10-team league that uses 14 hitters and 9 pitchers per team, for instance, then 140 hitters and 90 pitchers are positively-valued. If you see a negative value, it means the player is outside of that group of positively-valued players for that league universe... which league universe gets back to the point above about where you're looking at the number.

    Make sense?

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    • #3
      Originally posted by PTBob View Post
      What would be the "real" value of a -2 player?
      There is no connection between the real value and the fact that a player's projection produces a $-2 value. The $-2 value is completely dependent on your league's context. If your league rosters a low percentage of MLB players (such as a mixed-league with just a few teams), then a player with a $-2 value will still be a fine player in real life. If your league rosters a high percentage of MLB players, then a player with a $-2 value will typically not be a full-time player at all.
      "If you torture data long enough, they will confess." -- Ronald Coase

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      • #4
        So in that sense, think of a -2 player being worth a bit more than a -3 player, and quite a bit more than a -12 player. But none of them should be on your roster if that valuation is accurately measuring your league's penetration into the player pool.

        But if you want to think of what a negative player is "valued," simply think of it in a relative sense to other negative players, not an absolute value.
        MiLBAnalysis.com / @NickRichardsHQ

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        • #5
          Its starting to make sense
          Thanks

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          • #6
            Thanks Michael, I understand now. I had looked everywhere before posting and getting these good replies

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