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Bunch of points:
First, don't consider the "5" to "3" downgrade of Ruiz's PT a "40% reduction". That's not how those numbers work. He could lose one single AB, and if it lowered his projected PA from 450 to 449, that would cost him the same deduction, per the MM tables:
But getting back to the Posey/Ruiz comparison, our disconnect is that MM is measuring skills, and you're countering with stats. We are using PX in the MM calculations, not projected HR totals. That means that your disagreement isn't with Mayberry as much as with the whole concept of component skills analysis, which is the underpinning of just about everything we do around here.
Ruiz's 3-year PX levels: 102, 70, 135. Projection for 2013: 110
Posey's 3-year PX levels: 121, 69, 137. Projection for 2013: 113
Ruiz's 3-year HR totals: 30 in 1150 AB, or one every 38 AB.
Posey's 3-year HR totals: 46 in 1100 AB, or one every 24 AB.
No question, there's a noticeable advantage to Posey in terms of HR output. But as you can see from the PX lines, by that metric (which is all MM looks at) they are pretty much the same guy in terms of power skill. PX doesn't perfectly correlate with HR, but it does pretty well. So there are three possibilities to explain this:
1. PX is just doing a bad job of reflecting the power of one or both of them.
2. PX is a leading indicator that Ruiz has some latent power that we haven't seen manifest in terms of his HR production yet.
3. PX is a leading indicator that Posey's HR output is a little soft as compared to his power skill and we should expect some regression.
I know you're new to the forums, not sure how new you are to the site overall.... but it's basically our first commandment around here to trust the skills indicators.
Now, PX isn't the only indicator of power, of course. In the Forecaster (and coming soon to the site) we also use xPX to validate power output. Here are the xPX levels of these two guys for the same time period:
Ruiz's 3-year PX levels: 87, 95, 131.
Posey's 3-year PX levels: 121, 84, 104.
Based on that, combined with the above, the conclusion you should at least start to come to based on this data is that Posey's power skill is somewhat soft, certainly softer objectively than you would get from subjective, unmeasurable characterizations like "still-improving MVP".
Again, not arguing that I'd rather own Ruiz than Posey. But I am arguing that this is exactly what MM is designed to do: measure players by their relative skills rather than by subjective perception.
First, don't consider the "5" to "3" downgrade of Ruiz's PT a "40% reduction". That's not how those numbers work. He could lose one single AB, and if it lowered his projected PA from 450 to 449, that would cost him the same deduction, per the MM tables:
PLAYING TIME
PA MM Role
0 - 99 0 Non-factors
100 - 249 1 Fringe/bench players
250 - 449 3 Mid-timers
450+ 5 Potential full-timers
PA MM Role
0 - 99 0 Non-factors
100 - 249 1 Fringe/bench players
250 - 449 3 Mid-timers
450+ 5 Potential full-timers
Ruiz's 3-year PX levels: 102, 70, 135. Projection for 2013: 110
Posey's 3-year PX levels: 121, 69, 137. Projection for 2013: 113
Ruiz's 3-year HR totals: 30 in 1150 AB, or one every 38 AB.
Posey's 3-year HR totals: 46 in 1100 AB, or one every 24 AB.
No question, there's a noticeable advantage to Posey in terms of HR output. But as you can see from the PX lines, by that metric (which is all MM looks at) they are pretty much the same guy in terms of power skill. PX doesn't perfectly correlate with HR, but it does pretty well. So there are three possibilities to explain this:
1. PX is just doing a bad job of reflecting the power of one or both of them.
2. PX is a leading indicator that Ruiz has some latent power that we haven't seen manifest in terms of his HR production yet.
3. PX is a leading indicator that Posey's HR output is a little soft as compared to his power skill and we should expect some regression.
I know you're new to the forums, not sure how new you are to the site overall.... but it's basically our first commandment around here to trust the skills indicators.
Now, PX isn't the only indicator of power, of course. In the Forecaster (and coming soon to the site) we also use xPX to validate power output. Here are the xPX levels of these two guys for the same time period:
Ruiz's 3-year PX levels: 87, 95, 131.
Posey's 3-year PX levels: 121, 84, 104.
Based on that, combined with the above, the conclusion you should at least start to come to based on this data is that Posey's power skill is somewhat soft, certainly softer objectively than you would get from subjective, unmeasurable characterizations like "still-improving MVP".
Again, not arguing that I'd rather own Ruiz than Posey. But I am arguing that this is exactly what MM is designed to do: measure players by their relative skills rather than by subjective perception.
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