How strong is BPV?

[kjordan]

I gotcha, Doc. Thanks for the help.

[Doc]

Of course this is getting away from BPV discussion. I started my sorting with any batter with a BPV over 50 for 2012. Then sorted down from there.

[Doc]

I only tiered for the previous year. I have found that the best predictor of future stats are the most recent year. I will then go through those players one by one , year by year and see if any thing jumps out at me as a negative or positive that might factor into the following year. Injury. Slow decline in batting eye. Yearly increase in Px. Stuff like that. Then plan my draft around it. Using these catchers for instance and I really have not delved to deep into the rest of the league, yet. But, with these 6 guys. I write off Posey, he will go too soon. Maybe I have Wieter,Santana next. If either on is available in round 5 then I might take him. If not I look to the next guys , Ruiz and Molina if availabe in round 7 take one, last resort a guy like Jaso late. I really am looking for value. I won't want to take ANY player ahead of where I think i can get him. Or for how much. Of course the "best laid plans" and all sometimes you are stuck with Salty. In my league we need to pay a $10 transaction fee for every FA pick-up. One year I spent over $200 on the catcher position alone, since then ,i try to get a decent catcher in the first 5-7 rounds.

[kjordan]

Thanks Doc. I understand you when you say that Jaso in round 10 might be a smarter pick than Posey in round 2. You lose me, though, when you put Jaso (3 year avg stats .256-7-40) in the same tier as Posey (.316-15-64 despite missing almost an entire season of counting stats). How do you figure that?

[Doc]

I like the idea of embracing imprecision. However, I still have trouble trusting a system that tells me that Carlos Ruiz (3145 for an overall 65) has a stronger overall skill set than Buster Posey (3135 for an overall 60) and Matt Wieters (4125 for an overall 60). I think that is a lot closer to incorrect than imprecise, don't you? Would you draft Ruiz if Posey or Wieters was on the board?

For me when I look at any "system" like this is that if Ruiz, Posey and Weiters are all on the board, I would draft............none of them. Whey would I draft Posey in the 3rd round ( or even 2nd round which is probably where he will go) when I can draft Ruiz or Molina or even Jaso, later? When I begin to look at my batters, I set benchmarks for Px,CT%, batting eye and maybe BB% or Sx. When I do that 6 catchers get caught in my top tier. Posey, Wieters, Santana,Ruiz,Molina and Jaso. Now i also look at past years with these guys and see if anyone is trending Up or Down or has injury history, but as for a skill set I still consider them top tier and will look to draft the best value of them all.

[kjordan]

I like the idea of embracing imprecision. However, I still have trouble trusting a system that tells me that Carlos Ruiz (3145 for an overall 65) has a stronger overall skill set than Buster Posey (3135 for an overall 60) and Matt Wieters (4125 for an overall 60). I think that is a lot closer to incorrect than imprecise, don't you? Would you draft Ruiz if Posey or Wieters was on the board?

[RAY@HQ]

The idea is to embrace imprecision. Occasionally imprecision gives you quirks like this. Don't dismiss the whole system because of this though. It's a blip.

[kjordan]

Thanks Ray. I was really hoping you would just say it was a typo. I wanted to build the Mayberry ratings in to my projections but outliers that lie that far out scare me.

[RAY@HQ]

Thanks Ray. Here is my problem with Lucroy's rating: According to Ron's Mayberry article. A speed rating of 3 means "up to 30 SB". Lucroy has never stolen 5 bases in a season, yet he has the same speed rating as Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, and Andrew McCutchen. That does not make sense to me. Can you clarify? Thanks.

The rating is based on skill, not actual SB history/projection. It's telling you that Lucroy has skills that are in a range that could support 30 SB (although he's barely s. Doesn't mean he's actually going to steal them. We tightened this up a lot with our Mayberry 3.0 changes last year... but anytime there are ranges set up like this, someone's going to fall into the wrong bucket. Lucroy appears to be an example of that... or it could point to latent SB upside.

[kjordan]

Thanks Ray. Here is my problem with Lucroy's rating: According to Ron's Mayberry article. A speed rating of 3 means "up to 30 SB". Lucroy has never stolen 5 bases in a season, yet he has the same speed rating as Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, and Andrew McCutchen. That does not make sense to me. Can you clarify? Thanks.

[RAY@HQ]

In the 2013 Forecaster Jonathon Lucroy has a Mayberry speed rating of 3. Why?

He's got a 3 right now on the site too. What's the nature of the question? That's what the formula assigned him, based on his Spd, SBO%, and SB success rate. It's not a subjective rating.

[JVR]

Whoops, missed a check box. try again, link should work.

Tx much, Ray.

[JVR]

JVR, you absolutely must now update your Custom User Profile from "BHQ Subscriber" to "Mortal Gringo"!

Ha, the stuff that comes out from an innocuous Editorial Help thread.

[kjordan]

In the 2013 Forecaster Jonathon Lucroy has a Mayberry speed rating of 3. Why?

[Patioboater]

Do you have another link for us lowly BBHQ limited-access, mere mortal gringos?

JVR, you absolutely must now update your Custom User Profile from "BHQ Subscriber" to "Mortal Gringo"!