How strong is BPV?

[RAY@HQ]

Whoops, missed a check box. try again, link should work.

[JVR]

I just posted this page with a collection of Mayberry-related articles. Now you don't even need to search.

Ray, that link doesn't work. Gives me an "access denied" message.

Do you have another link for us lowly BBHQ limited-access, mere mortal gringos?

[JVR]

You're missing the dimension of playing time which is the most important driver of value in most cases.

It can also be the biggest depressor of value for ratio stats.

Outside of determining who has a closer job in the off season, the attribution and extent of PT has to be one of the most error-laden exercises, once you get past the name-brand types.

[kjordan]

Thanks Ray. I read Ron's 4-parter on Mayberry and I think I get it. Using his math, a hitter with an MM rating in the forecaster of 4235 would have a Maybery rating of 70 and a pitcher with an MM rating of 4405 would have a Mayberry of 85. Right?

[RAY@HQ]

I just posted this page with a collection of Mayberry-related articles. Now you don't even need to search.

[kjordan]

Thanks!

[RAY@HQ]

Thanks Ray. It is tempting to say that any metric that says Jose Reyes is as good as Troy Tulowitzki over rates speed. Is it that simple?

Where can I learn more about Mayberry codes?

No, not that simple. That was just the quickest example I could find. I bet I could just as easily find a .300+/15 HR guy who has a similar BPV to a .240/35 HR guy.

Type "Mayberry Method" into the search box at the top-right of the home page, you'll find a whole bunch of reading material.

[usualsuspects]

Do you consider BPV to be THE best indicator of a player's overall ability to produce? Would you ALWAYS draft a catcher with a BPV of 75 over a catcher with a BPV of 70? If your draft charts (sorted by position) ranked players ONLY by BPV, would you be comfortable going into your draft? If not, why not?
Thanks.

You're missing the dimension of playing time which is the most important driver of value in most cases.

[kjordan]

Thanks Ray. It is tempting to say that any metric that says Jose Reyes is as good as Troy Tulowitzki over rates speed. Is it that simple?

Where can I learn more about Mayberry codes?

[Doc]

I think I need to revisit Mayberry myself.

[RAY@HQ]

The problem with any single-number metric is that you're going to lose visibility into different categorical contributions. For instance, Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki play the same position and have nearly-identical BPVs. But they don't offer your team the same type of contribution.

That said, BPV definitely has its utilities. But if I were going into the draft with only one data element, I'd want it to be the Mayberry codes.

[kjordan]

Do you consider BPV to be THE best indicator of a player's overall ability to produce? Would you ALWAYS draft a catcher with a BPV of 75 over a catcher with a BPV of 70? If your draft charts (sorted by position) ranked players ONLY by BPV, would you be comfortable going into your draft? If not, why not?
Thanks.