How strong is BPV?

[JVR]

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Tx much, Ray.

[RAY@HQ]

In the 2013 Forecaster Jonathon Lucroy has a Mayberry speed rating of 3. Why?

He's got a 3 right now on the site too. What's the nature of the question? That's what the formula assigned him, based on his Spd, SBO%, and SB success rate. It's not a subjective rating.

[kjordan]

Thanks Ray. Here is my problem with Lucroy's rating: According to Ron's Mayberry article. A speed rating of 3 means "up to 30 SB". Lucroy has never stolen 5 bases in a season, yet he has the same speed rating as Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, and Andrew McCutchen. That does not make sense to me. Can you clarify? Thanks.

[RAY@HQ]

Thanks Ray. Here is my problem with Lucroy's rating: According to Ron's Mayberry article. A speed rating of 3 means "up to 30 SB". Lucroy has never stolen 5 bases in a season, yet he has the same speed rating as Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, and Andrew McCutchen. That does not make sense to me. Can you clarify? Thanks.

The rating is based on skill, not actual SB history/projection. It's telling you that Lucroy has skills that are in a range that could support 30 SB (although he's barely s. Doesn't mean he's actually going to steal them. We tightened this up a lot with our Mayberry 3.0 changes last year... but anytime there are ranges set up like this, someone's going to fall into the wrong bucket. Lucroy appears to be an example of that... or it could point to latent SB upside.

[kjordan]

Thanks Ray. I was really hoping you would just say it was a typo. I wanted to build the Mayberry ratings in to my projections but outliers that lie that far out scare me.

[RAY@HQ]

The idea is to embrace imprecision. Occasionally imprecision gives you quirks like this. Don't dismiss the whole system because of this though. It's a blip.

[kjordan]

I like the idea of embracing imprecision. However, I still have trouble trusting a system that tells me that Carlos Ruiz (3145 for an overall 65) has a stronger overall skill set than Buster Posey (3135 for an overall 60) and Matt Wieters (4125 for an overall 60). I think that is a lot closer to incorrect than imprecise, don't you? Would you draft Ruiz if Posey or Wieters was on the board?

[Doc]

I like the idea of embracing imprecision. However, I still have trouble trusting a system that tells me that Carlos Ruiz (3145 for an overall 65) has a stronger overall skill set than Buster Posey (3135 for an overall 60) and Matt Wieters (4125 for an overall 60). I think that is a lot closer to incorrect than imprecise, don't you? Would you draft Ruiz if Posey or Wieters was on the board?

For me when I look at any "system" like this is that if Ruiz, Posey and Weiters are all on the board, I would draft............none of them. Whey would I draft Posey in the 3rd round ( or even 2nd round which is probably where he will go) when I can draft Ruiz or Molina or even Jaso, later? When I begin to look at my batters, I set benchmarks for Px,CT%, batting eye and maybe BB% or Sx. When I do that 6 catchers get caught in my top tier. Posey, Wieters, Santana,Ruiz,Molina and Jaso. Now i also look at past years with these guys and see if anyone is trending Up or Down or has injury history, but as for a skill set I still consider them top tier and will look to draft the best value of them all.

[kjordan]

Thanks Doc. I understand you when you say that Jaso in round 10 might be a smarter pick than Posey in round 2. You lose me, though, when you put Jaso (3 year avg stats .256-7-40) in the same tier as Posey (.316-15-64 despite missing almost an entire season of counting stats). How do you figure that?

[Doc]

I only tiered for the previous year. I have found that the best predictor of future stats are the most recent year. I will then go through those players one by one , year by year and see if any thing jumps out at me as a negative or positive that might factor into the following year. Injury. Slow decline in batting eye. Yearly increase in Px. Stuff like that. Then plan my draft around it. Using these catchers for instance and I really have not delved to deep into the rest of the league, yet. But, with these 6 guys. I write off Posey, he will go too soon. Maybe I have Wieter,Santana next. If either on is available in round 5 then I might take him. If not I look to the next guys , Ruiz and Molina if availabe in round 7 take one, last resort a guy like Jaso late. I really am looking for value. I won't want to take ANY player ahead of where I think i can get him. Or for how much. Of course the "best laid plans" and all sometimes you are stuck with Salty. In my league we need to pay a $10 transaction fee for every FA pick-up. One year I spent over $200 on the catcher position alone, since then ,i try to get a decent catcher in the first 5-7 rounds.

[Doc]

Of course this is getting away from BPV discussion. I started my sorting with any batter with a BPV over 50 for 2012. Then sorted down from there.

[kjordan]

I gotcha, Doc. Thanks for the help.

[RAY@HQ]

I like the idea of embracing imprecision. However, I still have trouble trusting a system that tells me that Carlos Ruiz (3145 for an overall 65) has a stronger overall skill set than Buster Posey (3135 for an overall 60) and Matt Wieters (4125 for an overall 60). I think that is a lot closer to incorrect than imprecise, don't you? Would you draft Ruiz if Posey or Wieters was on the board?

These aren't the right numbers, or I'm not sure where you're looking. Here's what I'm seeing on the site today:

Posey 3145 or 65
Wieters 4235 or 70
Ruiz 3143 or 33

(I'm guessing you're looking at the Forecaster, which had a pre-suspension projection for Ruiz?)

Regardless, nobody's suggesting you draft Ruiz before Posey. But turning it around, if Posey is off the board, isn't it instructive to know that Ruiz might have a similar skill set at a fraction of the cost? Turning the original question on its side a bit: if I had TWO data elements for a draft, give me the MM codes and an ADP list. I'd be all set with that. You need to have some knowledge of the marketplace, MM does not attempt to address that.

(We're also ignoring the letter grades in this discussion, which are another layer to the puzzle here.)

[kjordan]

Thanks Ray. I gotta run but I will get back to ya tomorrow.

[kjordan]

Hi Ray. You're right on Ruiz. I was looking at the Forecaster which rates him at 3145 pre-suspension and not allowing for the games he'll miss. Speaking of the suspension, how come Ruiz's PT rating was reduced by 40% (from 5 to 3) over a suspension that will reduce his season by only 15% (25 games / 162)?

It is also curious that Posey's number for AVG is 3 in the Forecaster and 4 on the website. I agree with the 4 but I wonder what happened since publication that moved his rating.

Please help me understand this. Posey is a 26 year old still-improving MVP who has averaged 21 HR / 500 AB over his 2 healthy seasons. Ruiz is a 34 year old journeyman who has averaged only 14 HR / 500 AB over the last 3 years, has hit more than 10 only once in his career (which was last year when he managed only 5 after the All Star break), and is suspended for taking speed - which may have contributed to his power "breakout" in 2012. How can these 2 guys have the same skill rating for HR?

To answer your question, it WOULD be nice to know that Ruiz has a Posey-like skill set after Posey is gone IF HE DID. I say he doesn't. Given a full season of AB, I say Posey is a lock to outproduce Ruiz by 8-10 HR and 20-25 RBI.