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  • #1

    Mayberry speed question

    I have a question in descrepancies in the SPD ratings as they relate to Mayberry and actual SB projections after running the CDG and looking at the listings. Actually the Mayberry seems to correlate with the Sx but the SB projections don't jive at all. Albert Pujols has a 1 for speed in Mayberry but is projected for 12 SBs while Stephen Drew has a 5 speed in Mayberry but is only projected for 10 steals. I have listed just a few other examples. I was really looking forward to using Mayberry more in my draft this year but now I'm not so sure.
    PLAYER SB SPD MM
    Pujols 12 69 5155
    Youkilis 7 96 5245
    Tukowitzki 12 115 4345
    Bautista 7 100 5335
    Pedroia 17 105 3355
    Drew 10 139 3535
    Any comments or explanations?
    Thanks, Randy
    ESPN:10 team 9x9 Daily H2H. Auction draft. NON keeper
    C,1B,2B,3B,SS,4xOF, 2xUT
    SP,SP,RP,RP,P,P,P, B,B,B,B,B
    R,H,HR,RBI,SB,BB,K,TB,AVG
    W,L,SV,K,ER, ERA,WHIP,CMD,QS

    Fantrax: 16 team 8x8 Daily H2H Snake draft , NON keeper
    C, 1B,2B,3B,SS,INF,LF,CF,RF,OF,UT
    5SP,5RP, 5 bench, 5 IR
    HR,RBI,R,SB, Avg, 2B+3B,OPS,1B+BB
    QS,SV,ERA,HR/9,IRS+H,MWHIP,K-.5BB,W+CG+SO




    Tags: None
  • #2
    I think this thread will address your question fairly directly.

    Comment

    • #3
      Thanks for the reply Ray.

      After reading the entire thread I'm now more confused than ever! Stephen Drew had 10 steals last year, 5 the year before that, and is projected for 10 this year yet rates a 5 on the Mayberry code. Can we realistically expect him to get up to 50 steals this year?

      Another mayberry question; can a player that rates a 5 in steals be as important, impacting, or as relevant as a player rating a 5 in the power code. In other words would you rather have a player that hits 50 HRs or a player that steals 50 bases? Yet they both impact the MM score the same.
      ESPN:10 team 9x9 Daily H2H. Auction draft. NON keeper
      C,1B,2B,3B,SS,4xOF, 2xUT
      SP,SP,RP,RP,P,P,P, B,B,B,B,B
      R,H,HR,RBI,SB,BB,K,TB,AVG
      W,L,SV,K,ER, ERA,WHIP,CMD,QS

      Fantrax: 16 team 8x8 Daily H2H Snake draft , NON keeper
      C, 1B,2B,3B,SS,INF,LF,CF,RF,OF,UT
      5SP,5RP, 5 bench, 5 IR
      HR,RBI,R,SB, Avg, 2B+3B,OPS,1B+BB
      QS,SV,ERA,HR/9,IRS+H,MWHIP,K-.5BB,W+CG+SO




      Comment

      • #4
        In MM the counting stats do not matter, its the skill. So the top potential hr guy is a 5 and the top pot sb guy is a 5
        20 Team Dynasty Mixed

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by lambo View Post
          Thanks for the reply Ray.

          After reading the entire thread I'm now more confused than ever! Stephen Drew had 10 steals last year, 5 the year before that, and is projected for 10 this year yet rates a 5 on the Mayberry code. Can we realistically expect him to get up to 50 steals this year?

          Another mayberry question; can a player that rates a 5 in steals be as important, impacting, or as relevant as a player rating a 5 in the power code. In other words would you rather have a player that hits 50 HRs or a player that steals 50 bases? Yet they both impact the MM score the same.
          No, we can't expect 50 steals from Drew. (Note that the "up to" designation on the Mayberry tables is key.) But Spd does point out that Drew has SB upside far beyond the single-digit levels he's shown in the past.

          Your second question comes down to how you construct your roster. You'll (usually) need to target both power and speed at various points in your draft to win. Isolating the skills better helps you do that.

          Comment

          • #6
            I guess I'm going to have to accept the fact that I can't wrap my feeble mind around that concept. In my mind it takes skills to acquire counting stats and when I'm drafting I am trying to acquire players to help me win my league which is based on counting stats. If Stephen Drew would exceed projections by 100% and get 20 steals that would still be 60% below the MM steals code! I thought MM was about taking the shotgun approach as opposed to the sharpshooter approach....trying to make a reasonable projection within a 15-25% range.

            Bautista and Pedroia both have a 3 speed code ...but Bautista is procjected for 7 steals while Pedroia 17...Drew has a 5 and is projected for 10....Pujols has a 1 but is projected for 12....aaaaagh?!
            ESPN:10 team 9x9 Daily H2H. Auction draft. NON keeper
            C,1B,2B,3B,SS,4xOF, 2xUT
            SP,SP,RP,RP,P,P,P, B,B,B,B,B
            R,H,HR,RBI,SB,BB,K,TB,AVG
            W,L,SV,K,ER, ERA,WHIP,CMD,QS

            Fantrax: 16 team 8x8 Daily H2H Snake draft , NON keeper
            C, 1B,2B,3B,SS,INF,LF,CF,RF,OF,UT
            5SP,5RP, 5 bench, 5 IR
            HR,RBI,R,SB, Avg, 2B+3B,OPS,1B+BB
            QS,SV,ERA,HR/9,IRS+H,MWHIP,K-.5BB,W+CG+SO




            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by lambo View Post

              Bautista and Pedroia both have a 3 speed code ...but Bautista is procjected for 7 steals while Pedroia 17...Drew has a 5 and is projected for 10....Pujols has a 1 but is projected for 12....aaaaagh?!
              Yup, you'll find examples like this, no doubt. SBO% and SB% success rate both are big factors in projecting SB, Spd isn't the only input to an SB projection.

              Comment

              • #8
                In looking at Drew, he in fact has excellent speed, 128-137-147 the past three years. He also has exceptionally low SBO% (9%) for a guy with his speed. Carl Crawford's speed score wasn't much higher last year, at 158, but he had a 34% SBO. What Mayberry is saying is that Drew has the skills to steal 40-50 bases. In the same way that Daniel Bard or Mike Adams have the skills to close, but not the opportunity, Drew has the skills to run, but so far hasn't been given the opportunity.
                "Never make predictions, especially about the future." -- Casey Stengel

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