EP Help

[rhbalto]

EP is now listed as a percentage, but the "Using Leading Indicators" still has it listed in the old +30/-30 format. How can we use the new percentage?

[rhbalto]

Anyone? And I thought this was a great question...

Did I miss class on they day they chaged the EP rules?

[BRENT@HQ]

It is a good question ... one to which I don't have the answer. I've just now queried some of those who could help us out, so I'm sure some info is forthcoming. Thanks for your patience.

[Mike Shears@HQ]

Re: EP Help

Originally posted by rhbalto
EP is now listed as a percentage, but the "Using Leading Indicators" still has it listed in the old +30/-30 format. How can we use the new percentage?

Ugh. Thanks for letting us know, rhbalto. HQ fixed it in the glossary but not in the Using Leading Indicators. We'll let Ron know.

From the Glossary...

ERA Potential (EP)

Purpose & Meaning
The probability that a pitcher will improve his ERA over the balance of the season, based on an evaluation of the leading indicators of BPV, xERA Variance, Hit Rate and Strand Rate.

Benchmarks
The percentages are in 5% increments, ranging from 10% to 90%, though most will be centered closer to the mean, especially further along in the season. If a pitcher's EP says 60%, for instance, it means that he has a 60% chance of improving his ERA during the rest of the season. It also means that he has a 40% chance of seeing no change, or a drop-off.

Notes
If your star pitcher is struggling but has an EP of 70%, sit tight. By the same token, if one of the other GMs is getting itchy with a pitcher who has an EP rating over 65%, make him a trade offer. But lowball; he probably will bite.

The flipside is true too. If your pitcher is posting exemplary numbers but has an EP in 25% territory, or worse, he's doing the "smoke and mirrors" game. This is particularly true for those pitchers who do not have a history of good performance. While his value is high, it's time to deal. And do it quickly.