Random Variation

[Raine05]

I've seen "Random Variation" being used in articles, for example -4 or -5. Since, this term is new to me, and it's not in the Glossary, can someone help? I know MM is new this yr, is Random Variation as well?

Thanks.

[RAY@HQ]

Rand Var is what was formerly referred to as +/- score. From the Forecaster:

Hitters:

RAND VAR: A score that measures the impact random
variance had on the batter’s 2009 stats and the probability
that his 2010 performance will exceed or fall short of 2009.
The variables tracked are levels for h%, hr/f and xBA that
would be prone to regression. Players are rated on a scale of
–5 to +5 with positive scores indicating rebounds and
negative scores indicating corrections.

Pitchers:

RAND VAR: A score that measures the impact random
variance had on the pitcher’s 2009 stats and the probability
that his 2010 performance will exceed or fall short of 2009.
The variables tracked are levels for H%, S%, hr/f and xERA
that would be prone to regression. Players are rated on a
scale of –5 to +5 with positive scores indicating rebounds
and negative scores indicating corrections.

[Raine05]

Thanks Ray.

Are these only found in the book?

[RAY@HQ]

For the moment, yes. I've sent a note to get the definitions added to the glossary. And I would imagine they'll end up in the projection files and/or Playerlink at some point.

[TOLFG]

For the moment, yes. I've sent a note to get the definitions added to the glossary. And I would imagine they'll end up in the projection files and/or Playerlink at some point.

do you think they'll make it in to the file this year? I don't see them currently but I'm not sure this is the final product for 2013. I would love to be able to play around with them in my excel work but looking up each player from the Forecaster in order to add the data is a bit of a pain and probably not worth my time.

[RAY@HQ]

Not sure, but this is a good time to ask. I'll check into it.