Portfolio3 for head to head

[chappyphoto]

The league I'm in year after year is a 10 team H2H with a straight snake draft. I'm new to this site so I've been trying to soak it all in and learn all the strategies. However I'm having a hard time finding information about H2H leagues using straight drafts.


Dylan Hedges wrote an article on the subject of using P3 for Head to Head leagues, and Ron Shandler wrote another interesting article called Portfolio3 for 2009. I may be misreading the articles but from what I can gather about portfolio3 is that you need to balance your team with the 3 tiers, but at the end of Shandler's article he showed his test draft choices and how he'd managed to not venture too far out of tier 1.

So i guess my question is, am I under the correct assumption that in my league I need to target as many tier 1 players as I can and throw away the idea of drafting any high-risk high-skill (tier 3) players that aren't absolutely necessary? It would seem to me that in a H2H I would want to minimize risk, and seeing as I'm not paying for players, I would just grab as many tier 1's as possible.

Am I on the right track?

Thanks,
Eric

[RAY@HQ]

No, you don't necessarily want to grab as many tier 1's as possible. Tier 1 guys provide your foundation production levels for your team, but they don't typically provide profit... they're consistent performers. Consistency is fine, but if your whole team performs exactly as you expect, you probably don't win your league. You need guys who exceed expectations, break out, etc. Those are typically not tier 1 guys. Tier 2/3 guys still have a role on your team.

[Kevin]

No, you don't necessarily want to grab as many tier 1's as possible.

I'll differ... If you're doing a straight snake-draft, then I'd say absolutely YES get as many Tier 1 guys as you can! Ray is right about Tier 1 guys not providing as much profit potential as Tier 2 and Tier 3 guys, but that thinking applies more to auctions, where what you pay for each player is variable depending on production level, market demand, etc. In a draft, when your pick comes up, every available player will cost you exactly the same (i.e., your draft pick). To pass on a Tier 1 guy in favor of a Tier 2 or Tier 3 guy is borderline-lunacy.

Later in the auction (when, for example, all of the Tier 1 guys are long gone), I can make more of an argument for thinking less about the expected value of a player and more about the shape of his distribution curve. Towards the end is where you might pass on a rusty veteran $5 guy in favor of a $2 guy with severe upside potential, assuming he fits your team's profile. And so on.

But please, please, don't ever pass on a Tier 1 guy in a draft format.

Much of the advice on this site is geared towards auction formats. It's not intended to be that way in an exclusionary sense - straight drafters are welcome! But the most famous origin of the game was auction-style, and most of us play auction-style, and so that unintentional bias often creeps into our columns, analysis, forum posts, etc. And the same thing goes for H2H vs. Rotisserie - most of us play the "classic" version of the Rotisserie game, although H2H players are growing and absolutely welcome here. If you ever have any questions about whether or not something you saw on the site or in the books applies to your league, please continue to do what you did - bring it to the forums, tell us about your league, and we'll try to get it figured out.

Welcome.

[RAY@HQ]

That's a fair point, Kevin.

[NICK@HQ]

I also play in a H2H format, and yes, if a Tier 1 guy is left in a straight draft, grab him. The point of Portfolio 3 is to tell you how to handle different stages of an auction, but the principles apply to a straight draft too. Early on you need to minimize risk and get, as Ray says, exactly what you are expecting to get instead of getting cute and reaching early.

But one the top guys are gone, then it's about who to target next, when to target them, and why you are targeting them as opposed to someone else. The principles apply to all formats.

[chappyphoto]

Thanks guys! That does help me a bit. I'm only entering my 3rd year of fantasy baseball, although I'm taking it pretty serious, and this is the only format I've experienced so far. The majority of the ideas on baseballhq.com still apply with no translation needed, for me it was really just draft principles.

Are there any expanded options coming to the Expanded Draft Guides in the near future for a wider range of fantasy players? If not, you may be seeing several more questions from me on here in the coming months. But that's fine with me to.

Thanks again for the responses,
Eric

[RAY@HQ]

Are there any expanded options coming to the Expanded Draft Guides in the near future for a wider range of fantasy players?

Like what?

[chappyphoto]

I didn't want that to sound like the Custom Draft Guides aren't designed to help with fantasy players of all kinds, it's an incredible tool that I'm looking forward to using in the upcoming draft... I was wondering more if there might be some added features pertaining to DOM/DIS scores. Obviously I'm coming at it from a Head-to-Head point of view. Being able to allot a percentage of my "budget" on the different tiers in P3 and the players quality consistency score would be pretty cool.

This is also getting into the "I'm being annoyingly picky" area, and I really don't want to come across as that. The information is there and I can easily form my draft decisions on my own.... I was just curious.

Eric

[RAY@HQ]

Thanks Eric... certainly not accusing you of being picky. Just asked because some things are really easy to do and others are hard, and sometimes you can be surprised at what falls in which category.

Your suggestions are more conceptual, and require some thought. Also, wait until you read about the Mayberry Method. Whole 'other ball of wax...