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  • Important message about our projections

    This evening, Sunday, June 28, we will be making an important change to one of our most visible and important systems.

    Our in-season projections are probably one of the features that sets BaseballHQ.com apart from most any other fantasy information service. It is a system that was developed over many years and maintained using elaborate spreadsheet modeling. Tonight we will launch a new system, one that has been automated and will allow for more frequent updating of player baselines.

    For those interested in the process, here is how it all works:

    We start with a Primary Baselines file, which lists every player's statistical rates of performance, based on historical trends. These are the numbers you'd find in the Baseball Forecaster, adjusted as players change teams, roles, etc.

    Then we have each player's current stats from 2009.

    Then we create an Adjusted Baselines file, which combines the previous two files and creates new baselines for each player. How the data is combined is different for every player, based on playing time to date, age and change in BPIs. For instance, a player projected for a 4.50 ERA who is currently performing at a 2.50 level will be adjusted differently whether he's done it in 50 IP versus 100 IP, is 23 years old versus 37, and whether his BPV is currently 50 or 100 versus an historical level of 50. That is a rough generalization of the process.

    The Adjusted Baselines file is then run up against our Playing Time file to produce each player's balance-of-season projection.
    Since we were moving to essentially a new platform, this transition has also allowed us to make some tweaks to the projections algorithms, something that has not been done in many years. As a result, many of the balance-of-season player projections are going to change. Most will change by a little; some by more than a little. (Note that the algorithm for calculating Rotisserie values will not be changing, only the raw data that feeds the calculation.)

    If you see any player whose projection has changed significantly, please contact me. And by significant, I mean BY A LOT. If a player was projected for 21 HRs the rest of the way and is now being projected for 18, that is not significant. That is three errant gusts of wind.

    Comments welcome.
    Last edited by RON@HQ; 06-28-2009, 09:36 AM.
    "Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." -- George Carlin

  • #2
    Thanks

    I appreciate that you do such a good job letting us know what is happening, Ron. I'm looking forward to seeing the changes.

    Hawk

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    • #3
      When will these changes be applied to the RotoLab updates? Was thinking I'd save the current player values to compare the updates and look for any major discrepancies.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by makelele View Post
        When will these changes be applied to the RotoLab updates? Was thinking I'd save the current player values to compare the updates and look for any major discrepancies.
        Merv's on a Saturday update schedule, so presumably next Saturday.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by RAY@HQ View Post
          Merv's on a Saturday update schedule, so presumably next Saturday.
          Thanks

          Comment


          • #6
            Thanks Ron for the updates..can you name a few players that will have sig. change in there " rest of the season projections"..by the way I had 3 errant gusts of wind just this morning !!!...Nomar

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            • #7
              Originally posted by nomar View Post
              by the way I had 3 errant gusts of wind just this morning !!!...Nomar
              Maybe lay off the three-bean chili.
              - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
              'Put Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame!'

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              • #8
                Originally posted by DAVITT@HQ View Post
                Maybe lay off the three-bean chili.
                And the sundried tomato hummus.

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                • #9
                  The first projections from the updated process were just published.
                  While the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty.
                  --Sherlock Holmes

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                  • #10
                    I last updated my master file about a week ago, but the first thing that I noticed when I updated my YTD+Proj web query was that Jason Bartlett jumped from $29 to $38, behind only Albert Pujols among hitters as measured by 5x5 $ value. His R, HR, RBI, and SB all increased slightly (despite one week fewer projected PAs due to the time lag between my two queries), but his projected batting average for the rest of the year went from .322 (already high) to .347, which seems quite a jump.

                    I'm not sure that I trust a batting average projection of .347 for anyone, much less someone with as short of a track record as Jason Bartlett, especially when it comes with a BB% = 6% and CT% = 85%.

                    Thoughts? Are we relying too much on YTD batting average on balls in play (H%)??? Joe Mauer's .372 projected BA and Ichiro's .360 are also conspicuous.

                    -Ed
                    @edecaria

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                    • #11
                      Ed, good catch. The correct data has been published.
                      While the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty.
                      --Sherlock Holmes

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I'm sure this is something you've probably planned/caught. But just to bring it up in case you haven't. I noticed on the player pages ...on the vs Team tabs, the 2008 data is all there, but the 2009 data is all blank. Just FYI. Steve
                        League 1 : Scoresheet, 20 team BL, contracts, continuing (21 keepers + 20 minor leaguers)

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                        • #13
                          Zobrist saw a pretty big jump in % stats. Don't know if it's the norm or not.

                          Zobrist, from last Monday:

                          279 372 537

                          Zobrist, now :

                          296 397 572

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                          • #14
                            ok ... raising my hand...

                            newbie

                            where do I find this info?

                            I may know but don't want to guess...I want to be certain...

                            sorry and thanks...

                            There is a ton of info here and you can drown easily
                            League #1 CBS
                            16 team mixed H2H Points ALL PLAY - dynasty auction w/ multi year contracts & minor leagues

                            Start- C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, (4) OF, Util, (5) SP,(2) RP,(8) BENCH, (4) DL, (8) MINORS
                            Batting-HR- 3.50---3B-4.00---2B- 2.50---1B- 1.25---BB,R,RBI,SB- 1
                            Pitching-QS- 6 pts---W- 5 (3 for RP)---Save- 5---BS <2> ---Hold- 3---IP- 1.65---K- 1---Hit/BB allow- <0.35>---ER allow- <1.50>

                            League #2 YAHOO
                            20 team H2H CATS- keep 10
                            Start
                            - C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, (3) OF, Util, (2) SP,(2) RP, (2) P,(5) BENCH, (2) DL
                            Batting- R,H, HR, RBI, SB, AVE, OBP,OPS
                            Pitching- W,L,SV,BB,K,HLD,ERA,WHIP

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              markinsand... you can find these changes in the projections all over the site. Any of the following:

                              - Lifelines/Stats and Projections
                              - PlayerLink
                              - Custom Draft Guide

                              Any of those will show you Balance-of-Year projections.

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