Quality starts included in customized rankings

[hcarrizo]

Hello, I just want to say you are doing a great job on the customized rankings. I just saw that you have added new fields for scoring options. The one I dont see and it would be a great idea if you added it, is QUALITY STARTS. Thats a field that our league rewards for SPs, so it would be greatly appreciated!!

[RAY@HQ]

Wow, are you QS people all timing your questions? I've seen a couple of these this week.

Problem is, we can't just add the category to the CDG tool because we don't project QS, period. We're going to do some research on the topic this summer, though, which might open the door to doing something with QS in the future.

(And I am not allowed to let a post about QS go by without my standard disclaimer: it's a crappy category. There's nothing "quality" about a pitcher throwing 6 IP of 4.50 ERA ball. End of sermon.)

[dmahlan]

Wow, are you QS people all timing your questions?

(And I am not allowed to let a post about QS go by without my standard disclaimer: it's a crappy category. There's nothing "quality" about a pitcher throwing 6 IP of 4.50 ERA ball. End of sermon.)

Perhaps the discussion shouldn't be the degree of crappiness of Quality Starts as a stat (though Bill James and others have done a good job of debunking the 4.50 ERA argument), but whether QS is a vast improvement over Wins as a scoring category (more projectable, less influenced by factors not under the pitcher's control, places more value on starting pitchers), which is why so many leagues have adopted it.

QS Person #1217

[RAY@HQ]

A reasonable point, dmahlan. Like I said, we're going to crunch some numbers and see if we can use HQ tools to project QS. If we're just throwing darts at a wall or parroting back last year's QS numbers to you, that's not a value add (at least in my book). If we're going to do it, we'll do it the "HQ way".

[Paul Hardball]

...
(And I am not allowed to let a post about QS go by without my standard disclaimer: it's a crappy category. There's nothing "quality" about a pitcher throwing 6 IP of 4.50 ERA ball. End of sermon.)

First off...great news that you'll at least be looking into QS!

I've used QS as a stat in my main league (16 team, mixed, draft, keeper) since 1991 and can't say enough good things about it. Please don't hold my opinion as a negative in your own research...lol.

The 6/3= 4.50 ERA argument against is too easy of a target. Think of the 6 IP & 3 ER factors as minimum threshholds, not defining factors.

By themselves, they are both correct, IMO. With bullpens built the way they are, 6 IP w/ 0,1,2 ER isn't really disputable as a QS. Likewise, 3 ER with 7,8,9 IP is also a quality outing.

Having minimums of 6 IP and 3 ER collects mostly Quality Starts. IF you're counting partial innings (6.1, 6.2, 7.1, etc); the 6 and 3 scenario is just 1 of 40 possible scenarios (44 if you count outings of more than 9 IP) that result in a Quality Start.

I haven't done it in quite awhile, but I tracked QS over two seasons. Not scientifically, but comprehensively by boxscores and double checked by counting non QS outings to check game totals by years end. I graded out each of the 44 scenarios. In 2002, the 6 IP w/ 3 ER scenario accounted for 201 of 2377 QS's, or 8.46% . In 1994, the 6/3 scenario accounted for 105 of 1562 QS's, or 6.72%.

A quality control factor of greater than 90% seems like pretty solid footing to me. Looking forward to hearing more about this.

[Paul Hardball]

Ray, Understood that you're not looking into QS's until later in the season; but I bumped it up hoping to get your thoughts on my previous post...6/3 as minimum threshholds, not defining factors for a QS.

As for relevant BHQ tools, K/9 and CMD always point me in the right direction for QS finds.

Thanks.

[RAY@HQ]

OK, I'm convinced the 6/3 argument is a flimsy one.

I've added the QS research to the Research and Analysis calendar for mid-April. We'll see where it takes us.

[Paul Hardball]

Good deal. Thanks Ray.

[wellblessed]

I also have an interest in adding this to our league and like the stat a lot personally. You always hear SPs say "my job is to give my ball club a chance to win." Even a 6/3 does that, right?

[Paul Hardball]

Bump

Just wondering if anything has transpired relating to QS's and 2010 BHQ? Thanks.

[RAY@HQ]

Thanks for the bump, I'll fold this into our offseason planning.