Robinson Cano - PlayerLink Database potential issue?

[dmonte]

I'm not sure if this is the right forum for this question ... but I'm concerned that there may be an issue with a player's stats in the PlayerLink Database.

While researching Robinson Cano in the PlayerLink Database, it seems that his Projected stats seem to be way off. Meaning that his projected production is much lower than the consensus opinion for him.

Specifically, as of this morning for his 5x5 Roto stats:

Projected Bal: 54 R, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 1 SB, .256
Projected Total: 60 R, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 1 SB, .235

Are these correct? The Forecaster notes that he is a .300 hitter ... yet his the projections here represent .256 AVG for the rest of the season, which seems very low, assuming his H% goes back to historic norms.

I'm considering a trade for Cano ... but if the site stands by these projections, I'm going to pass on it.

[RAY@HQ]

I'm not sure it's an issue, but I'd say that projection definitely falls on the pessimistic side. Note the writeup from ~10 days ago on his Playerlink page... it indicates good reason to expect a rebound. Still, nothing's improved in those 10 days. But if you're buying low enough, I wouldn't be too hesitant.

[dmonte]

Thanks Ray ... at this point, if those projections are the expected numbers, then I'm not buying low and am going to pass on the deal (Yunel Escobar plus Eric Gagne for Cano). I've been agonizing over this for a while now ... Escobar's projections and Cano's projections are very close. If there is no mistake in Cano's projections, then I'm definitely going to pass.

[RAY@HQ]

If you look back at Cano's July/August last year, he's awfully streaky. He could have a monstrous week or two at any point and get back on pace for a .300 season. But I'd agree that the price being offered here doesn't exactly constitute "buying low" on Cano.

[John77]

Since we're on the subject of Cano, someone just waived him in one of my 5x5 10 team roto leagues today. Currently I own Pedroia with a similarly slumping Weeks on reserve. I'm not sure if someone else better is going to come along, and I have the #1 waiver claim.

If I just looked at draft position alone (he went 31,38,42,29 & 50 in my 5 leagues), it would probably be a no brainer, but I only had him at 66 in my pre-season rankings.

Thoughts?

[RAY@HQ]

Figuring Weeks' BA is going to be low all year, I'd rather have Cano... unless you really need that speed from Weeks.

[John77]

Figuring Weeks' BA is going to be low all year, I'd rather have Cano... unless you really need that speed from Weeks.

Thanks, Ray... That's pretty much how I'm thinking too... I've put the claim in for him, while dumping Pedroia. Though now, someone has complicated things some and decided to dump Thome!

I may just keep Weeks around in reserve as thanks to injuries, I actually do need the speed a little. Though I like Pedroia a lot, he's only projected for 8 steals the rest of the way, while Weeks may score another 90+ runs and steal 24 more according to the playerlink.

[Doc]

I was also looking to buy low on cano and was thinking of offering Pedroia to the cano owner, but player link shows 5x5 $ for cano at $7 and Pedroia $21. Why would you drop Pedroia?

[John77]

Why would you drop Pedroia?

Lack of roster space more than anything else.

I re-evaluated things after I last posted and I decided that since Rollins is coming back this week (hopefully) that Lugo was the guy that needed to go. This is going to leave me with THREE second-baseman though (all of which are 95%+ owned in Sportsline leagues). I figure I can use one of them in my UTIL slot and the other can ride the pine until they get it figured out. Hopefully at some point, I'll be able to move one of them in a trade.

[Ed@HQ]

I was also going to ask about the projection. It definitely just changed in the last few days. I think Cano dropped from the #7 ranked 2B to the #24 ranked 2B sometime between today and last Friday when I last looked at the file. Seems a bit drastic for someone with his track record. But, if HQ now thinks that his power is below average to go along with a poor eye and weak speed, then I don't think it's a technical error. (I do think it's a valuation misjudgment, though.)

[Patioboater]

I've got to agree. He's had a bad April, but he's got a track record as a .300 hitter with a .300+ xBA and I can't see a skills-based reason to suddenly forecast a fifty-point drop to a .256 BA for the rest of the year and dropping his forecast value from $22 in the preseason to $7.

P.S. And I'm neither a Cano owner nor a Yankee fan, so I don't have a dog in this fight. I just don't understand why the change in expectations. I'd especially expect that sort of drastic change to be accompanied by a write-up of some sort. Right now it looks more like a data glitch to me than a conscious decision.

P.P.S. Usually this is the time of year when we're up in arms about forecasts that haven't been changed. So this thread at least makes a nice change of pace!

[Big Stein]

I am a Cano owner and I still think there are enough positives to figure he will rebound solidy and end up pretty much where we expected. Remember, he was awful last year through May and still ended up coming close to projections. I should know, I'm having de ja vu this year!

Comparing his current numbers to last year's first half --

1. His BA is about 80 pts lower than the first half last year, but he's being absolutely tortured by a 15% H% and his xBA is not too far off from last year (.258 vs. .265).

2. His PX is down from last year (66 vs. 95), but is rising lately (143 in May) and may end up very close to last year when the split comes in July.

3. He is hitting slightly more LD (18%) and FB (33%) than last year which is good to see since the Forecaster pointed out his high GB% hurt his power potential.

4. He already has matched his HR total from last year's first half (3) despite the PX dip. His RBI total is way down, but that might be a function of hitting at the bottom of the order (8th quite a bit) and the Yankees' struggles generally.

IIRC, Robby had an excellent spring and it was about this time last year that he started heating up. I think this year will play out similarly. Since his BA started out so low this year, a cumulative .300 BA might not happen, but .300 for BOY and another 18-20 HR's is not out of the question.

[The Q]

The projection for Cano is completely 100% wrong.

[RAY@HQ]

See thread started by Ron yesterday. He's tracking down some possible issues in the projection model.