IP Projections

[jdwexler]

Yo-

In my pts league, innings pitched is the biggest point determiner after runs allowed. How reliable are the IP projections?

In the past I've ignored them and just based my rankings on BPV, assuming that skills will translate into more innings and that IP projections are relatively inaccurate.

[RAY@HQ]

Well, we don't know who's going to get hurt, which obviously is a pretty seriously limiting factor. And I wouldn't necessarily use our projections to determine who's going to pitch 190 innings vs. who's going to pitch 200. I'd stick to drafting skills, and pay some attention to reliability/injury history. Then innings should take care of themselves.

[Markus_ls]

My approach to IP

We also use IP. Here is how I approach it.

- I try to look at pitchers in broader groups, eg. Over200IP, 175-200, 150-175, 100-150, and under 100 (aka UG). It's tough to make finer distinctions than that.

- Their performance history is the best predictor of their ability to stay healthy. I look for ones who are healthy most of the time.

- Too much health can be a bad thing, or rather too many pitches/IP/batters faced over the last 4 years can be a bad thing. Health is good, but I'd actually rather see four 190IP years than four 215IP years.

[jdwexler]

thank you, fellas. very helpful.