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  • 2008 projection updates

    i am starting to use the 2008 projections for my draft preparation.
    should i wait until just before my draft to trust the 2008 projections?
    what is SP Santana gets traded to the Brewers (example)?
    this would surely effect his projections.

    q. how fast would such a trade be reflected into the 2008 projections?

    xophd

  • #2
    xophd,

    First, welcome to the forums.

    At any given time, the projections are based on the most current information available. There are certainly a number of playing time questions still to be answered (what's going on in the LA OF? will Brandon Inge get traded out of Detroit? etc.). As those matters are resolved, the projections will adjust quickly. We have a team of playing time analysts who stay on top of their assigned teams, very often you'll see relevant changes applied within a day or two.

    And while we're always tweaking around the edges of the projections, I would say that the projections are certainly good enough for prep purposes right now... that's why we have them available, after all! Things will change all the time, in fact there's never really a point where we call anything "final". For your purposes, "final" is just the numbers you take to your own draft.

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    • #3
      My unofficial sense is that the skills projections don't change much from this point forward, although waiting a couple weeks more might help. However, playing time projections keep changing throughout spring training.
      "If you never guess wrong, you're not guessing about hard enough things." -- Jordan Ellenberg

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      • #4
        Originally posted by RAY@HQ View Post
        SNIP...Things will change all the time, in fact there's never really a point where we call anything "final". For your purposes, "final" is just the numbers you take to your own draft.
        Ray, when does weekly projections go daily for the 2008 season? The current FAQ info on the projection pages where I sought my answer is from/for 2007. Thank you.

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        • #5
          Playing time projections are updated daily now... in the sense that if one of our analysts makes a change, it takes effect the next day. Performance projections (the "tweaking" I was talking about above, or re-applying ballpark factors if a guy changes teams, etc) are not yet daily. (This part is what drives the displayed date in the projection files.)

          As we get closer to March, I think we'll certainly get to an "every couple of days" or "when news warrants" (i.e. a big trade) schedule. I honestly don't recall whether we were totally daily last pre-season.

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          • #6
            that answers my question

            well addressed

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